On February 27th, following a strong rally since the beginning of the year, the precious metals market entered a phase of consolidation during Thursday's trading session. Market analysts indicate that as gold and silver had recently established a new short-term uptrend over the past few trading days, a significant amount of unrealized profits had accumulated. Profit-taking by short-term futures traders has become the dominant theme in the market.
Minor shifts in the external financial environment have also contributed to this pullback. Currently, the US Dollar Index has shown a slight rebound after touching a support level, displaying relative strength, which has somewhat dampened the appeal of dollar-denominated precious metals. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remains stable around 4.05%. The steadiness of this risk-free rate is putting short-term pricing pressure on non-yielding assets. Although crude oil prices are holding around $66.50 per barrel, providing some support for inflation expectations, this is insufficient to offset the short-term impact from technical selling.
From a pricing mechanism perspective, the spot and futures markets for gold are undergoing seasonal liquidity adjustments. As investors reclassify their year-end positions, the CME's December gold futures contract has become the focal point of current market fund activity. This rolling over of positions between contracts often accompanies significant liquidity fluctuations, causing prices to lack sustained momentum when testing key resistance levels. The current consolidation is more a result of psychological hesitation among bulls near the $5200 mark rather than a fundamental reversal.
Regarding technical targets, the bull camp in gold still has its sights set on the solid resistance level at $5400.00. To resume the upward trend, the immediate task is to reclaim this week's high of $5269.40. Conversely, if bearish forces strengthen further, the technical support at $4854.20 will be tested. A market rating of 7.0 indicates that despite today's decline, gold's overall market performance remains within a strong range, with substantial buying interest expected near this week's low of $5109.50.
The dynamics in the silver market are more aggressive, with the medium-term bullish vision still focused on breaking through the technical barrier at $100.00. Although a short-term pullback to $86.81 has occurred, the overnight high of $90.255 has become the new benchmark for upward moves. Analysts suggest that as long as the price holds above the key February low of $71.815, the broader震荡上行格局 for silver remains intact. Once the current market digestion is complete, this high-volatility asset often finds a new equilibrium quickly after consolidation. Investors are advised to monitor the support level at $84.56 while staying alert to potential shifts in market sentiment.
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