According to a research report from China Securities Co., Ltd., Meta initiated the era of AI glasses in September 2023, with the industry expected to enter a product boom period in 2025. AI glasses products from companies like Google are projected to be launched successively around 2026-2027. At the policy level, the inclusion of AI glasses in national subsidies starting in 2026 is anticipated to further boost consumer demand. Currently, AI glasses face an "impossible trinity," requiring trade-offs in cost, weight, performance, and battery life. AI audio glasses and AI camera glasses are already relatively mature, while display-equipped AI+AR glasses are still in the development phase, with optical display systems being a key component; waveguide solutions are expected to be the mainstream direction in the future. Once the technology matures, AI glasses have the potential to replace smartphones and become comprehensive personal terminals. Lens manufacturers are currently positioning themselves in sales channels and the custom lens segment, driving up average order value. Looking ahead, they may leverage their accumulated expertise in resin materials and optics to penetrate deeper into more segments of the supply chain, such as waveguide technology, electrochromic components, and eye-tracking optoelectronic elements, thereby capturing a greater share of the industry's value.
A review of the AI glasses industry's development and recent status reveals that AI glasses integrate AI technology with traditional eyewear forms, potentially emerging as one of the best hardware carriers for AI in the consumer market. Current mainstream products include AI audio glasses, AI camera glasses, and display-equipped AI+AR glasses. Meta's launch of the Ray-Ban Meta in September 2023, the industry's first AI glasses model to surpass one million units in shipments, marked the beginning of this era. The year 2025 is seen as the start of a product explosion for AI glasses, characterized by intense competition with numerous participants, including XR technology firms, AI glasses startups, internet giants, major smartphone manufacturers, and cross-industry players. With increased R&D investment from tech companies globally, products from giants like Google and Apple are expected to be released around 2026-2027. The CES exhibition in 2026 showcased a diverse range of AI glasses, with many new entrants joining the fray; overall product trends highlighted breakthroughs in standalone terminal capabilities, multi-chip solutions, lightweight designs, deep focus on vertical application scenarios, and swappable battery systems for extended usage.
How can AI glasses achieve mass-market adoption? They currently grapple with the "impossible trinity" – the difficulty of balancing performance, weight, and battery life simultaneously, alongside the cost challenges inherent in achieving this balance. Market offerings thus make various trade-offs between cost, weight, performance, and battery life, with different types of AI glasses emphasizing specific functions such as media viewing, audio, photography, or professional applications. While AI audio glasses and AI camera glasses have reached a relatively mature stage, partially replacing TWS earphones and action cameras, display-equipped AI+AR glasses remain under development. The optical display system is a critical link here, with waveguide technology forecasted to become the predominant solution. From a consumer perspective, mass adoption of AI glasses requires significant improvements in performance (achieving full functionality, enhancing hardware/software effects, and AI interaction capabilities), extended battery life, reduced weight (ideally under 30 grams), and lower prices. The analysis suggests that once the technology matures, AI glasses featuring full-color displays, high performance, and long battery life could potentially supplant smartphones as the primary personal integrated terminal.
Opportunities for lens manufacturers in the wave of AI glasses adoption are multifaceted. Firstly, they can utilize their own or partner professional eyewear retail channels to facilitate AI glasses sales, offering services like product experience, fitting, and professional support. Secondly, they can cater to the demand for thin, lightweight prescription lenses compatible with AI glasses, using customization to increase the average transaction value. Thirdly, for display-equipped AI+AR glasses, they can provide integrated laminated lenses developed jointly for waveguide components. Finally, leveraging their deep-rooted expertise in resin materials and optics, manufacturers can delve into more segments of the supply chain, such as developing components for waveguide systems, electrochromic elements, and eye-tracking technologies, thereby capturing a larger portion of the industry's value.
The report highlights several risk factors. Firstly, the pace of AI glasses industry development might fall short of expectations. The inherent "impossible trinity" challenge—balancing performance, weight, and battery life against cost—persists. If key technologies fail to advance sufficiently to improve performance and reduce costs, AI glasses may not achieve mass-market penetration as anticipated, impacting the financial performance of all players in the supply chain. Secondly, there is a risk that the development of lenses adapted for AI glasses' optical display systems may not meet expectations. While lens manufacturers are actively engaged in R&D for prescription lenses compatible with these systems, such as integrated laminated waveguide lenses or resin-encapsulated waveguide lenses, the research process is inherently uncertain. Failure to develop high-quality products could lead to unfulfilled performance targets. Thirdly, competition within the AI glasses industry is likely to intensify. Currently in its early stages, as market penetration increases and scales up, widespread diffusion of technology could lead to a surge in participants, potentially putting pressure on individual companies' market share and profitability.
Comments