The year 2026 is shaping up to be a critical period for Novo-Nordisk A/S. The company's market share for its drug semaglutide is facing increasing pressure from competitors, led by Eli Lilly. Furthermore, the core molecular patent for semaglutide is set to expire in the Chinese market this year.
On February 23rd, local time, Novo-Nordisk A/S, the manufacturer of the weight-loss drug semaglutide, announced results from a phase 3 clinical trial. The trial was a head-to-head comparison pitting its next-generation weight-loss drug, CagriSema, against Eli Lilly's drug, tirzepatide. The results indicated that over 84 weeks, CagriSema achieved a 23% reduction in body weight. This efficacy was lower than the 25.5% weight loss demonstrated by Eli Lilly's tirzepatide.
Shares of Novo-Nordisk A/S closed down sharply by over 16% on the day. This decline not only marked a new low since June 2021 but also completely erased all the gains the stock had achieved since the launch of its previous generation weight-loss drug, semaglutide.
Novo-Nordisk A/S had positioned CagriSema as a more potent successor to semaglutide. However, the latest data suggests this expectation may be dashed. In response, Novo-Nordisk A/S stated it plans to initiate clinical trials for a higher dosage in the second half of this year.
Mike Doustdar, who took over as CEO of Novo-Nordisk A/S in August last year, has plans to guide the company through what he terms a "crisis." Successfully bringing a new generation of weight-loss therapies to market is one of his most crucial tasks.
An analyst from Jyske Bank, Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen, commented that Novo-Nordisk A/S is experiencing a "considerable setback." He stated that when looking at the company's long-term valuation, CagriSema accounts for a significant portion of its projected growth. Laustsen added that, based on market consensus, approximately 60% of Novo-Nordisk A/S's future growth was expected to come from CagriSema.
Analysts from J.P. Morgan also noted that the disappointing clinical data represents a major setback. They suggested it could dampen demand for CagriSema, weaken long-term sales forecasts, and make it difficult for Novo-Nordisk A/S to regain market share in the rapidly expanding weight-loss treatment market.
CagriSema is a combination drug, integrating the amylin-mimetic component cagrilintide with the GLP-1 component semaglutide. The medication is administered via a once-weekly injection.
Since reaching a peak in 2024, the market capitalization of Novo-Nordisk A/S has decreased by over $470 billion, wiping out all the gains accrued since the introduction of its semaglutide-based weight-loss drug in 2021. The company had even briefly held the title of Europe's most valuable listed pharmaceutical company in 2024.
On the same day, shares of Eli Lilly saw a significant boost from Novo-Nordisk A/S's weak clinical data, with its market capitalization approaching $1 trillion again. Eli Lilly anticipates that demand for its tirzepatide weight-loss drug will continue to grow rapidly in 2026. The company also expects to launch an oral weight-loss drug, orforglipron, in the second quarter of this year. This development is expected to intensify competition with Novo-Nordisk A/S's already approved oral semaglutide weight-loss medication.
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