Protein meal: Thursday saw CBOT soybeans fall to their lowest level since mid-August, pressured by expectations of a bumper harvest. US soybean meal and US soybean oil followed the decline. The market is awaiting the USDA supply and demand report, which is expected to show US soybean production reaching a record 4.597 billion bushels; US soybean stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year are projected to climb to 331 million bushels, slightly above the 315 million bushels in the October report. The US soybean export sales report came in below expectations, with weekly net sales of 1.456 million tonnes, down 11% from the four-week average. China responded that it remains open to expanding purchases of US agricultural products, with the prerequisite being the implementation of reciprocal tariff reductions. Domestically, protein meal continued to probe lower. Falling costs and insufficient downstream purchasing willingness both weighed on soybean meal futures. As soybean crushing volumes recovered to high levels, soybean meal inventories continued to climb, up more than 20% year-on-year, with the accumulation pressure bearing down on the market. The futures market continues to digest the pressure from declining import costs and high inventories, and going forward the focus will remain on soybean cost and soybean meal demand expectations, as well as capital flows.
Oils: Thursday saw BMD palm oil suffer a sharp sell-off, with the market weighed down by persistent concerns that inventory buildup policies could overshoot, combined with weakness in competing vegetable oils. A survey showed that Malaysian palm oil inventories at the end of October will climb 6.8% to 3.75 million tonnes. Crude oil prices edged slightly higher, with the market pricing in easing US-Iran tensions and reduced rate hike expectations. Domestically, oils futures followed overseas markets lower. Palm oil fell more than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Domestic oils inventories continued to climb, with downstream buyers mainly making need-based purchases and limited market transactions. The weak reality currently dominates the market, and going forward the focus will remain on geopolitical conflicts, changes in import costs, and end-user consumption conditions.
Hogs: Thursday saw nearby-month hog contracts lead the decline, with far-month contracts following, as the pattern of near-month weakness and far-month strength persisted. On the day, the hog weighted contract added 22,000 lots, with total open interest at 494,000 lots. November slaughter plans for group hog enterprises increased, with high average slaughter weights, retail farms actively selling, and a lack of effective support on the demand side, as the loose supply pattern suppressed hog price gains. Survey data showed that November hog slaughter at key breeding enterprises increased 2.56% compared with October, with large increases in Shandong and Jiangsu, while planned volumes in Zhejiang and Jiangxi declined month-on-month. Retail farmers showed a strong sentiment to sell at a loss, market supply was loose, enthusiasm for secondary fattening was low, and slaughter weights remained high, with pork supply continuing to expand. On November 5, mainstream hog transaction prices in the Heilongjiang market were 8.68 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from November 4. Mainstream hog transaction prices in the Henan market were 8.74 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from November 4. The pattern of strong expectations and weak reality in the hog market persists. Overall, since the National Day holiday, the supply side of the hog market has continued to add weight, spot hog prices have declined seasonally, low-priced pork has entered the market, hog prices are under pressure and adjusting, and the pattern of strong expectations and weak reality remains unchanged.
Eggs: Thursday saw egg futures fluctuate and adjust, with the main 2612 contract opening higher in the morning session before weakening during intraday trading, closing down 1.36% at 3,542 yuan per 500 kg. On the spot side, data showed that as of November 5, national egg prices were 4.23 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from November 4. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 4.1 yuan/jin, and Heishan market brown-shell eggs were 4.1 yuan/jin; in sales areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 4.29 yuan/jin, and Guangzhou market brown-shell eggs were 4.65 yuan/jin. End-user digestion was stable, most traders followed the trend in buying and selling, and egg prices across sales area markets were stable to higher, with a few declining. In the short term, fundamentals are stable, and both futures and spot prices are fluctuating and adjusting. Attention should be paid to spot prices and changes in market sentiment during the main contract rollover process.
Corn: Thursday saw corn fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract futures price trending lower. Early in the week, nearby contracts were affected by farmers' reluctance to sell, and futures prices continued to rebound, with total open interest in the weighted contract maintained at a high level of 2.26 million lots. The listing of high-moisture grain in Northeast China entered a concentrated phase, but grassroots reluctance to sell sentiment has clearly warmed compared with earlier, farmers have limited acceptance of low prices, and more are storing corn cobs and waiting. Sinograin has successively launched rotation purchases in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and other regions, releasing a policy-side "bottom-line thinking" signal that supports market sentiment. Drying tower costs have moved up due to rising coal prices, and traders are cautious about building inventories but still have decent willingness to buy on dips. Port arrivals remain at high levels, but high-quality grain sources are still favored by the market. Downstream purchasing is mainly for executing contracts, and bulk vessel shipment volumes have not shown significant month-on-month expansion. Port traders' sentiment to hold prices has strengthened compared with earlier, but expectations of increased supply in production areas limit upward elasticity. Arrivals at deep-processing enterprises in North China remain at low levels, forcing enterprises to raise purchase prices to maintain daily production. Grassroots corn harvesting is basically wrapping up, but the proportion of those storing cobs and waiting is relatively high, and the pace of dry grain listing is slow. The operating rate of the deep-processing industry fluctuated slightly, starch inventory pressure has eased somewhat but remains overall high, and the sustainability of price increases is in doubt. In the medium to long term, key attention should be paid to the grain-selling progress of grassroots farmers, changes in Sinograin's purchasing intensity, and the recovery of downstream breeding demand. If grain-selling progress is slow or policy support intensifies, the price bottom will be further consolidated, but conditions for a trend reversal are not yet in place.
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