With only hours remaining before the ceasefire deadline set by US President Trump, Iran continues its offensive operations across the Persian Gulf, further diminishing hopes for a breakthrough to end the conflict. On Monday, Trump stated at the White House that any agreement to resolve the conflict must guarantee freedom of navigation through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. He warned that if Iran fails to reach a deal by 8 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, the US will destroy Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges. The United Nations cautioned that such indiscriminate attacks on civilian facilities could constitute war crimes. Trump responded bluntly, saying he is "not worried at all" about the potential consequences. This latest ultimatum marks a critical juncture in the war, which has already resulted in over 5,200 fatalities, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and frequent attacks on energy facilities across the region. Trump began setting deadlines on March 21 in an attempt to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and while he has extended the deadline multiple times, he indicated on Monday that the possibility of another extension is "very slim." Israel is preparing for the possibility of several more weeks of conflict. Meanwhile, market volatility is intense, with rising oil prices and stock market fluctuations. Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are "progressing well" and that reopening the strait is "a very important priority." He emphasized that any agreement must be acceptable to him and include guarantees for the free passage of goods like oil. Trump further threatened that US forces could destroy "all of Iran's bridges" and leave power plants "burning, exploding, and unusable." Iran has warned that if the situation escalates, it will increase attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf, which would worsen global fuel shortages and severely impact the world economy. Saudi Arabia reported that Iran launched seven ballistic missiles and multiple drones toward Saudi territory early Tuesday, with debris from interceptions falling near some energy facilities. A key bridge connecting Bahrain and Saudi Arabia was temporarily closed as a precaution. The Israeli Defense Forces reported two waves of missile attacks from Iran since midnight, with fire services reporting damage in Tel Aviv and surrounding towns. An Israeli military spokesperson stated that, if necessary, Israel has approved further military missions against Iran over the next three weeks. Concurrently, Israel is engaged in another conflict in Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah and struck targets within Beirut on Monday. Oil prices rose for a third consecutive day as investors remained cautious. Despite initial ceasefire signals, the risk of further escalation continues to pressure markets. Brent crude rose 1.5% in early London trading on Tuesday, surpassing $111 per barrel. The US dollar, acting as a safe-haven asset during the conflict, gained 0.1%. A senior Singaporean diplomat warned that the economic consequences of the conflict could worsen further and that investors have not yet adjusted. Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, speaking at an investment management conference in Singapore, stated, "I am quite sure the markets have not fully priced in the worst-case scenario." With the US average price for regular gasoline rising above $4 per gallon, the increasingly unpopular conflict is making it difficult for Trump to find a graceful exit path. He mentioned that Vice President Vance and envoy Vitkevich are involved in ceasefire talks, but Tehran rejected a ceasefire proposal on Monday. Trump commented, "I can tell you there is a positive, willing negotiating partner on the other side. They are negotiating, and we believe in good faith—we will see very soon." According to Iran's official news agency, in addition to an agreement ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is calling for a permanent end to the war, post-war reconstruction, and the lifting of sanctions. The agency also quoted a spokesperson for Iran's joint military command, stating that Iran's attacks against the US and Israel will not be affected by Trump's threats. Iran insists it will only allow the strait to reopen after its war losses are compensated. Currently, Iran has brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill. Typically, one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports pass through this strait. On Monday, two tankers carrying Qatari LNG attempted to leave the Persian Gulf but turned back within hours. Traders involved in the passage reported that Iranian officials refused clearance. Tehran is currently allowing only a minimal number of vessels, including those used for its own oil exports, to pass through the waterway. Trump admitted that he would like to take control of Iran's oil, but US public opinion favors a swift end to the conflict. When asked about the trade-off between seizing oil supplies and public sentiment, Trump said, "I am a businessman first. I've said the victor deserves the spoils. Why wouldn't we do it? But we can't do it now."
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