The United States is advocating for a swift resumption of Russian natural gas exports to Europe through pipelines traversing Ukraine, as part of efforts to secure an energy ceasefire agreement.
According to officials from the US, Europe, and Ukraine, Washington is promoting the rapid restart of Russian gas sales to Europe via this pipeline running through wartime adversary territory, aiming to achieve an energy truce before winter sets in.
Sources involved in the discussions said that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff proposed the plan during their September visits to Moscow and Kyiv: US intermediaries would handle the sales of Russian gas to circumvent European sanctions, while also generating substantial returns for American investors.
Under current EU regulations, all purchases of Russian gas must be phased out by the end of 2027. Leaders of major European powers have stated they have no intention of re-relying on energy supplies from a country regarded as their primary strategic threat.
Previously, under pressure from President Trump, Ukraine unilaterally paused strikes on Russian refineries, and the plan was shelved last month. Kyiv halted attacks on Russian refineries for nearly two weeks, during which Russia continued bombing Ukraine's energy infrastructure and began exporting diesel to the US. The US then shifted its focus to negotiating a more comprehensive peace agreement.
However, Ukraine resumed airstrikes last Friday, hitting three major Russian refineries over the past three days. With trilateral peace talks among the US, Russia, and Ukraine planned for mid-November in Abu Dhabi, the urgency to push for a full energy ceasefire has increased. Russia has so far rejected US attempts to broker the deal.
US negotiators believe that Russia's return to the European gas market would serve as a powerful incentive to persuade Putin to agree to talks. The Soviet-era pipeline network, running from the Urengoy gas field in Siberia through Ukraine to Europe, could also provide Kyiv with much-needed transit fee revenue.
A senior US official said that White House officials proposed depositing proceeds from Russian gas sales to Europe in escrow accounts in third-party jurisdictions to prevent the Kremlin from using the funds for war. The US is trying to pitch the plan to European leaders, arguing it could lower energy prices before winter, especially as Europe's gas storage levels have fallen to multi-year seasonal lows this year.
This policy shift stands in stark contrast to Trump's stance during his first term. Back then, Trump repeatedly criticized Merkel for building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, warning it would leave Germany "captive to Russia," and imposed sanctions on the project in late 2019. Just over two years later, Russia, bolstered by energy export revenues, launched its special military operation against Ukraine, judging that Europe would not retaliate strongly due to its high economic dependence. But the war has led Europe to view its reliance on Russian gas as a strategic vulnerability exploited by a hostile power, and it no longer trusts Russia.
The EU has legislated to significantly cut Russian gas imports and is set to impose a full ban by the end of next year. Europe's current official position is that even if a comprehensive peace agreement with Russia is reached, the EU will not resume purchases of Russian gas, let alone under a fragile energy ceasefire that would allow Putin to continue fighting and fund his military.
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said in an October interview with a Hungarian newspaper (confirmed by his office) that the ban on Russian gas imports should be permanent. "Of course I will not trust Russia. Even if peace is achieved tomorrow, which is what we all hope for," he said.
The Trump administration is betting that Europe's resistance will not be as firm as it appears. But some senior European officials have been more blunt in private. A senior Nordic official called the idea of resuming Russian gas purchases a violation of Europe's longstanding position; a top official from a major European power compared it to former British Prime Minister Chamberlain, who sacrificed Czechoslovakia and appeased Hitler for commercial deals.
The US now believes that restarting the Nord Stream pipelines could ultimately be a key part of a larger agreement, not only to end the Ukraine war but also to resolve long-term contradictions between Russia and US-European allies. A senior US official said Merkel's mistake was advancing the pipeline project without simultaneously building a broad security framework to reassure Russia.
Russia and Germany completed the first Nord Stream pipeline in 2011, designed to bypass the network through Ukraine. Nord Stream 1 stopped supplying gas in August 2022, and Nord Stream 2, which was never operational, was severely damaged in underwater explosions in September 2022, attributed to Ukraine. Even if political and regulatory hurdles are cleared, restarting the two pipelines would take a long time.
A US official said multiple economic options were discussed during negotiations. The official noted that Europe is interested in a plan that could significantly lower gas prices across the continent, and any economic agreements would be incorporated into a comprehensive peace deal. In contrast, the pipeline through Ukraine, connecting to Slovakia and extending to Austria and Germany, could be restarted almost immediately. After the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war began, this pipeline maintained minimal gas flows until it was shut down in January 2025.
Now, only 11% of Europe's gas comes from Russia, compared to 45% before the war. US liquefied natural gas accounts for 30% of European consumption; Russian gas currently reaches Hungary and Slovakia mainly via LNG carriers or the TurkStream pipeline.
European officials acknowledge that the ripple effects of Trump's military actions against Iran could weaken Europe's resistance. Qatari LNG carriers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, and even if more tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices continue to rise. The EU estimates that due to the Iran conflict, Europe has spent an extra 100 billion euros (about 112 billion USD) on energy.
Data from the EU energy regulator shows that Europe's underground gas storage is about 75% full, below the nine-year average for the upcoming winter. Germany's main opposition party, the far-right Alternative for Germany, has made resuming imports of cheap Russian gas a core campaign issue for the 2028 election.
Diplomats say that if Ukraine endorses the gas sales plan as part of a ceasefire arrangement to avoid power outages in major cities, humanitarian disasters, and a new wave of refugees in the coming months, Europe's stance could soften more easily. This is particularly crucial: Ukraine's air defense ammunition is exhausted, and due to global production shortages caused by the Iran conflict, the US has limited supplies of Patriot interceptors.
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