On April 29, the international gold market entered a phase of consolidation influenced by multiple macroeconomic variables. CBCX indicated that spot gold retreated to approximately $4,605 per ounce, marking a single-day decline of about 1.6% and touching its lowest level in nearly three weeks since early April. Short-term pressures primarily stem from a rebounding US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and portfolio rebalancing towards riskier assets. However, the fundamental drivers supporting gold prices over the medium to long term have not undergone any significant change.
From a fundamental perspective, the sustained trend of net gold purchases by global central banks has become a key factor in major asset allocation. CBCX believes that factors such as debt expansion in major economies, rising risk premiums on US dollar-denominated assets, and persistently high geopolitical risks are increasingly highlighting gold's strategic role as a store of value. JPMorgan Chase has raised its year-end gold price target to $6,300, while BNP Paribas forecasts an average price of $5,620. Overall, financial institutions maintain a bullish outlook for the medium to long term.
In terms of market structure, the downside potential for gold prices remains limited. Technically, the $4,500 level is viewed by several institutions as a key medium-term support zone, with significant buying interest emerging during deeper pullbacks. According to the latest World Bank report, although short-term prices for gold and silver may face periodic resistance, the medium to long-term upward trend, driven by structural factors, is not yet over.
Looking ahead, gold is expected to resume its upward trajectory once key central bank policy meetings conclude. CBCX anticipates that after a period of heightened short-term volatility, gold will enter a new phase of oscillating gains, with a high probability of testing new periodic highs within the year. Investors are advised to adopt a medium to long-term perspective, focusing on position management and risk hedging, while avoiding frequent short-term trading.
Risk Warning: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Foreign exchange and precious metals are high-risk products; significant price fluctuations may lead to loss of principal. Please invest rationally and assume your own risks.
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