Kaiyuan Securities released a research report indicating that the 2026 refrigerant quotas have been issued, sustaining the upward momentum in the fluorochemical sector. Quotas for R32, R134a, R125, R143a, and R227ea in 2026 show limited changes compared to the adjusted 2025 quotas, with a slight contraction observed. Meanwhile, leading PVDF producers have halted production, prompting multiple companies to raise prices, with the highest quoted price reaching 56,000 yuan per ton, though actual transaction volumes remain to be verified.
The 2026 quota plan confirms that the supply of third-generation refrigerants will return to early 2025 baseline levels, granting companies some flexibility in allocation. The current low inventory situation is expected to drive steady price increases and transaction execution, with strong market confidence among enterprises.
Key insights from Kaiyuan Securities include: - **Orderly Transition in Quota Adjustments**: Companies have shown restraint in managing the shift from 10% to 30% allocation changes. - **Price Hikes in Refrigerants**: As of December 8, major producers in East China raised prices for R32, R125, R410A, and R134a, both domestically and internationally, laying a solid foundation for the upcoming year. - **Sector Outlook**: Against the backdrop of China’s transition from global supplier to global regulator in refrigerants, coupled with steady downstream demand and no imminent alternatives, the upward trend is expected to persist. The sector offers low valuations, significant growth potential, and strong certainty.
**PVDF Market Catalyzed by Production Halts** Huayi Group’s subsidiary, Wanhao Company (a major producer of F152a, F142b, FKM, and PVDF), has suspended operations. The company holds over 65% of the domestic market share for coating-grade PVDF and is a key global player in lithium battery-grade PVDF. The suspension has notably impacted PVDF supply, with multiple firms raising prices to 56,000 yuan per ton, though actual transactions await confirmation.
**Weekly Fluorochemical Market Update** - **Fluorspar Prices Under Pressure**: As of December 12, the average market price for 97% wet fluorspar powder was 3,290 yuan per ton, down 0.87% week-on-week. The December average (as of December 12) stood at 3,312 yuan per ton, a 9.83% year-on-year decline, while the 2025 average (as of December 12) was 3,482 yuan per ton, down 1.78% from 2024. - **Refrigerant Prices Continue Rising**: - R32: Price and margin at 63,000 and 50,391 yuan/ton, flat and down 0.01% week-on-week. - R125: Price and margin at 46,000 and 31,404 yuan/ton, up 1.10% and 1.62% week-on-week. - R134a: Price and margin at 57,500 and 38,259 yuan/ton, up 1.77% and 2.68% week-on-week. - R410a: Price at 54,000 yuan/ton, up 0.93% week-on-week. - R22: Price and margin at 16,000 and 6,845 yuan/ton, flat and down 0.33% week-on-week.
In the export market, R32 held steady at 61,000 yuan/ton, while R125 rose 4.65% to 45,000 yuan/ton. R134a and R410a remained unchanged at 50,000 and 51,000 yuan/ton, respectively. Reports suggest R125 offers have climbed to around 51,000 yuan/ton, with R134a prices surpassing 60,000 yuan/ton due to long-term automotive contracts, and some orders reaching 63,000 yuan/ton. R32 prices are expected to rise gradually.
**Recommended Stocks**: - Key picks: Jinshi Resources (603505.SH), Juhua Group (600160.SH), Sanmei Chemical (603379.SH), Haohua Chemical (600378.SH). - Other beneficiaries: Dongyang Sunshine (600673.SH), Yonghe Co. (605020.SH), DONGYUE GROUP (00189), Capchem (300037.SZ).
**Risks**: Potential downside risks include weaker-than-expected downstream demand, price volatility, and unforeseen policy changes.
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