The 9-day Spring Festival holiday in 2026 has ushered in the "longest Spring Festival film season in history." As of February 4, seven films have confirmed their release dates for the holiday period, with six scheduled for simultaneous debut on the first day of the Lunar New Year (February 17). While advance ticket sales have not yet commenced, data from Maoyan Professional shows that "Pegasus 3" leads the pack with 716,000 users marking it as 'want-to-see,' solidifying its top position for the season. "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure" and "Awakening Silence" follow in second and third place with 286,000 and 227,000 'want-to-see' markers respectively, essentially locking in the top three spots for the upcoming season. It is noteworthy that last year's Spring Festival season, powered by blockbusters like "Ne Zha 2," set a historic high of 9.5 billion yuan, creating a significant high-base effect. This has led some investors to question whether this year's season can maintain such strong performance. In response, several film industry insiders indicated that although the total box office scale might see a year-on-year decline, the market possesses sufficient resilience, and leading films are expected to maintain strong individual box office elasticity. Most industry professionals anticipate the total box office for the season to fall within the range of 7 to 8 billion yuan, with optimistic projections suggesting it could surpass 8 billion yuan.
So far, besides the three new films mentioned above, three other films—"Boonie Bears: Always Have Bears," "Blades of the Guardians: Rising Storm in the Desert," and "Starry Dream"—are also set to premiere on the first day of the Lunar New Year. "Return to the Wolf Pack" is planned for a re-release on the third day of the new year, creating a staggered release schedule alongside the six new films debuting on the first day. This year's Spring Festival film lineup encompasses a wide variety of genres including comedy, science fiction, spy thriller, animation, and martial arts. Within this selection, industry expectations are widely pinned on "Pegasus 3." Bolstered by the high popularity of its predecessors, it is anticipated to be the dual anchor for both box office revenue and critical acclaim during the season.
The positive box office outlook for "Pegasus 3" has also attracted participation from numerous listed film companies. Information from Maoyan Professional shows that the producing companies for "Pegasus 3" include Wanda Film Holding Co.,Ltd., Bona Film Group Co.,Ltd., China Film Group Co.,Ltd., and Hengdian Entertainment Co.,Ltd., while Beijing Enlight Media Co.,Ltd. and Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation appear on the list of co-producing companies. Furthermore, it is understood from industry sources that Maoyan is the lead controller for "Pegasus 3." Slightly differing from the current Maoyan 'want-to-see' rankings, several industry insiders predict that "Awakening Silence" and "Blades of the Guardians" will join "Pegasus 3" to form the top three contenders for this year's Spring Festival season. Among these, "Awakening Silence," directed by Zhang Yimou, has China Film Group Co.,Ltd., Wanda Film Holding Co.,Ltd., and Beijing Enlight Media Co.,Ltd. involved in its production. The producing or co-producing companies for "Blades of the Guardians" include China Film Group Co.,Ltd., Wanda Film Holding Co.,Ltd., and Zhewen Pictures Group Co.,Ltd.
Currently ranked second on the Maoyan 'want-to-see' chart, "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure" is a sequel to the "Panda Plan" IP, with Beijing Enlight Media Co.,Ltd. being one of its production companies. The "Boonie Bears" IP, to which "Boonie Bears: Always Have Bears" belongs, has been a perennial fixture in the Spring Festival lineup. The series has released 11 films to date, cumulatively grossing over 8.1 billion yuan at the box office. It boasts a stable audience base and is a key representative of family-friendly films during the holiday season.
Regarding whether this year's Spring Festival season can replicate last year's strong performance, an industry insider commented that overall, the 2026 season achieves comprehensive coverage of multiple genres including comedy, spy thriller, action, animation, and documentary, indicating more rational competition. Benefiting from factors such as the longest Spring Festival holiday ever, the wave of movie-going during homecoming travels, and the consistent demand for family entertainment, this year's Spring Festival season still possesses strong catalytic potential. Based on this assessment, the person estimates that this year's Spring Festival box office could fluctuate around 7.5 billion yuan.
According to survey results from Box Office Searchlight, when estimating the total box office for the traditional first to seventh days of the Lunar New Year, 34.3% of respondents believe the total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival season will fall within the 7-8 billion yuan range. Simultaneously, those who believe it can exceed 8 billion yuan account for approximately 33.5% combined, demonstrating the industry's optimistic expectations for the season's overall performance.
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