On March 18, shipping-related stocks saw an intraday uptick, with COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation briefly hitting the daily limit increase. Companies including China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers, GRAND PELICAN, China Merchants Port, and COSCO SHIPPING Development also followed with gains. In early trading, the continuous main contract for the Europe route containerized freight index futures opened higher, experienced volatility during the session, and saw its gains narrow. At the time of writing, the contract was up 1.86% at 1,974 points. According to a Xinhua News Agency report, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations office stated on the 17th that a tanker anchored in the Gulf of Oman was attacked by an unidentified projectile. The report indicated minor structural damage to the vessel but no crew injuries. The office, in a statement, said the incident occurred approximately 23 nautical miles (about 42.6 kilometers) east of Fujairah, UAE, and no environmental pollution was reported. The statement did not provide further details. CITIC Securities pointed out that disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping the energy landscape. Based on Kpler data, it is estimated that around 10 tankers will dock at Yanbu Port, alleviating concerns over a "market with prices but no transactions," and the number of VLCCs is expected to increase further. The shipping distance from Yanbu Port/Strait of Hormuz to Qingdao Port has increased by approximately 18%. Furthermore, considering the shipment capacities of Yanbu Port and Fujairah Port, any demand gap seeking supplementation from the US Gulf would expand the shipping distance growth to over 30%. In the short term, releasing strategic petroleum reserves and adjusting supply chains can help counter the geopolitical impact of US-Iran tensions, but finding a partial restoration of transit capacity through the Strait of Hormuz remains the key solution. Once restrictions are lifted, compensatory demand is expected to help maintain high freight rates for tankers. If vessel utilization rates are constrained, it could further push rates higher. Attention should be paid to the historic increase in concentration of VLCC capacity; the freight rate pricing mechanism is being reshaped. On one hand, "quasi-alliance" practices enhance shipowners' bargaining power. Simultaneously, an alliance-like grouping involving Sinokor, MSC, and Trafigura, with fleet rental surpluses, boosts the alliance's ability to further expand capacity, suggesting concentration may increase further. Short-term uncertainties are still likely to drive freight rates upward, without altering the expectation that leading oil shipping companies could see record profits by 2026. Huayuan Securities expressed optimism that crude oil shipping will benefit from fundamental improvements driven by sustained increases in crude oil production and tight vessel supply. The "long-term structural factors" are reshaping pricing logic, and geopolitical changes could continue to provide emotional or fundamental catalysts. They forecast a significant rise in the oil shipping market's prosperity by 2026, with the potential for high levels to be maintained over the next three years, potentially heralding a "great era for oil shipping." They recommend focusing on China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation, and China Merchants Nanjing Oilchem. The firm is also positive on the recovery of the dry bulk shipping market, noting that environmental regulations restricting the operation of older fleets are driving the continued removal of effective capacity. This, combined with sustained iron ore production increases in Australia, Brazil, and West Africa, and the potential catalyst of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on global commodity demand, leads to an expectation of continued recovery in the dry bulk market, potentially entering a "new cycle for dry bulk." Recommendations include China Merchants Energy Shipping (benefiting from both oil and dry bulk), Haimen Pacific International Shipping, HNA Technology, and GRAND PELICAN. They are also optimistic about the medium-to-long-term growth potential of intra-Asia container shipping demand, citing global supply chain diversification as the core driver and US tariff policies as a catalyst. Additionally, a shortage of smaller container vessel capacity, with limited newbuilds unable to meet both replacement needs for existing fleets and demand growth, suggests market conditions may remain favorable. Suggestions include monitoring SITC International Holdings, Zhonggu Logistics, and Jinjiang Shipping.
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