A new wave of significant price increases for optical fiber is underway globally, with the upward trend now spreading from the Chinese market to Europe and the United States. This price cycle is being driven by a surge in data center demand and tightening supply of upstream preforms, leading to a substantially improved profit outlook for industry leader Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company.
According to industry research firm CRU's latest data, the spot price for China's G652.D bare fiber reached 83.40 yuan per fiber-kilometer in March 2026, a 165% increase from January 2026 and a massive 418% increase year-over-year. This price has accumulated an increase of over 400% since May 2025 and has surpassed the previous cycle high of 78.80 yuan per fiber-kilometer for the first time. Concurrently, prices for similar products in the European market rose 136% month-on-month from January, indicating a progressively clear trend of global supply tightening.
Analysts from UBS Group AG believe that Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable's profits have entered an upward revision cycle. They have significantly raised their earnings per share forecast for the company for 2026 to 2028, projecting 2026 EPS to reach 4.98 yuan, far exceeding the market consensus estimate of 1.85 yuan.
**Chinese Fiber Prices Hit Record Highs, Surpassing Previous Cycle** Data from CRU's bimonthly report shows that the spot price for China's G652.D bare fiber recorded 83.40 yuan per fiber-kilometer in March 2026, representing a 418% year-over-year increase and a 165% increase from January 2026. This acceleration follows increases of 92% year-over-year and 79% month-on-month reported in January 2026.
This price level signifies that the cumulative increase for China's G652.D bare fiber since May 2025 has exceeded 400%, and it has surpassed the previous cycle high of 78.80 yuan per fiber-kilometer for the first time, setting a new historical record.
Notably, since January 2026, the price of China's G652.D bare fiber has exceeded that of similar products in Europe. The last time this occurred was in November 2018, a period driven by massive FTTH deployments and 4G network construction in China, which spurred explosive growth in optical cable consumption.
**Price Surge Spreads to Europe and US, G657.A1 Fiber Also Strengthens** The rise in fiber optic prices is no longer confined to China. CRU data indicates that the price for European G652.D bare fiber reached 7.94 euros per fiber-kilometer in March 2026, a 136% increase from January 2026 and a 159% year-over-year increase, showing that the supply tightening effect is spreading globally.
Prices for G657.A1 bare fiber, used in indoor and bend-insensitive applications, have also risen sharply. CRU data shows that month-on-month price increases for G657.A1 bare fiber in Europe and the US from January 2026 reached 130% and 69% respectively, primarily supported by strong data communication demand and supply constraints.
**Diverging Demand Structure: Data Centers Take Over from Telecom Operators** On the demand side, Chinese and overseas markets are showing different structural characteristics. CRU data indicates that China's optical cable consumption in the first quarter of 2026 was flat year-over-year, with demand from telecom operators remaining weak. However, this drag was offset by growth in data center demand. Fiber manufacturers are reallocating capacity towards data centers and emerging applications like fiber optic drones, while upstream preform supply continues to tighten, and overall industry capacity expansion remains relatively restrained.
In overseas markets, demand in Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable's core overseas markets (Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America) grew 2% year-over-year in Q1 2026, continuing the full-year 2025 growth trend of 2%, consistent with previous assessments of overseas demand recovery. The US market performed particularly strongly, with Q1 2026 demand up 24% year-over-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by telecom network construction and hyperscale data center expansion.
**Earnings Forecasts Sharply Revised, Valuation Remains Attractive** UBS Group AG views the sharp rise in spot fiber prices as consistent with its channel checks, indicating that Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable's profits have entered an upward revision cycle. Improved visibility on fiber price increases and product mix upgrades are expected to provide sustained support.
Regarding earnings forecasts, UBS Group AG projects that Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable's revenue will grow from 21.062 billion yuan in 2026 to 33.742 billion yuan in 2030, with net profit increasing from 4.122 billion yuan to 8.526 billion yuan over the same period. The EBIT margin is forecast to rise significantly from 11.4% in 2025 to 24.3% in 2026, and further expand to 32.9% in 2027.
Currently, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable's stock trades at approximately 19 times its estimated 2027 price-to-earnings ratio. UBS Group AG notes that key concerns for investors currently center on the sustainability of the price rebound and the extent to which spot price increases can be translated into company profits.
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