**Lead Futures Market Overview** Last week, LME lead closed lower, opening at $2,008/ton, peaking at $2,016, and dipping to $1,996 before settling at $1,998.5, down $10.5, with a trading volume of 5,499 lots. Domestically, overnight SHFE lead futures showed weak fluctuations, ending slightly lower, with the main contract SHFE Pb2601 closing at ¥17,320/ton, down 0.03%.
**Spot Price Forecast by Yangtze Lead Industry Network (pb.ccmn.cn)** The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision (meeting starts December 9 local time, ends December 10, with results announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11). Concurrently, the Bank of Japan’s impending rate hike has triggered a reversal in carry trades and global asset sell-offs. Overnight, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose, while gold and U.S. stocks fell, except for the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which gained. China’s Politburo meeting signaled "more proactive fiscal policies" for next year, while the Fed’s rate-cut decision looms, and the ECB sends mixed signals—a quiet global monetary policy standoff is underway. Bullish sentiment remains cautious, with lead prices expected to trade within a narrow range today.
**Supply Dynamics** Raw material constraints and capacity cuts provide dual support. Upstream lead concentrate supply remains tight, with processing fees persistently low, underpinning rigid costs for smelters. Seasonal production cuts at northern mines and insufficient import replenishment further strain raw material availability. In midstream smelting, primary lead producers face increased maintenance, while secondary lead capacity is limited by tight scrap battery supply, collectively pointing to a clear supply reduction in December and driving structural market tightness.
**Demand Outlook** Seasonal recovery coexists with structural pressures. Downstream lead-acid battery demand is entering its traditional peak season, particularly for automotive starter batteries, offering a price floor. However, demand recovery is uneven, with some sectors entering off-seasons and facing long-term substitution pressures from lithium batteries. Downstream buyers remain cautious, prioritizing on-demand purchases, limiting strong unilateral price momentum.
**Price Forecast** The market is caught in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with prices oscillating between robust industrial support and macro-driven correction pressures. Support stems from historically low inventories, high raw material costs, and rigid demand in certain sectors. Pressure arises from technical overbought conditions and fading upward momentum after earlier bullish pricing. Short-term direction hinges on key signals like Fed policy, inventory shifts, and peak-season demand strength, with lead prices likely to trade narrowly in the near term.
*(Research Team, Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network cjys.cn)*
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