Global energy storage demand is flourishing across multiple regions. From January to November this year, domestic energy storage bidding in China reached 112GW/364GWh, marking year-on-year growth of 110%/161%. It is projected that China's energy storage installations will reach 264GWh by 2026, an 80% increase. In North America, explosive growth in computing power is driving electricity and storage demand beyond expectations, with the U.S. showing strong terminal demand for energy storage. By 2026, new U.S. energy storage installations are expected to reach 63GWh, up 40% year-on-year. On the supply side, China's inverter exports totaled $7.436 billion from January to October, rising 6.38% year-on-year. Leading domestic companies maintain a competitive edge and are expected to secure more high-margin overseas orders.
Zheshang Securities highlights the following key points:
**Demand Side** Global energy storage demand is expanding rapidly, with new installations projected to reach 271GW, 444GW, and 661GW in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing growth rates of 44%, 64%, and 49%.
1) **Domestic Market**: The full integration of renewable energy into the market has widened peak-valley electricity price differentials. Multiple provinces have introduced capacity pricing policies, clarifying and optimizing the profitability model for large-scale storage. Energy storage demand is shifting from policy-driven to market-driven. China's energy storage bidding surged to 112GW/364GWh from January to November, up 110%/161% year-on-year. By 2026, domestic installations are expected to hit 264GWh, an 80% increase.
2) **U.S. Market**: Computing power growth in North America is driving electricity and storage demand beyond expectations. The U.S. exhibits strong terminal demand, with new installations projected to reach 63GWh by 2026, up 40% year-on-year.
3) **European Market**: Large-scale storage demand is surging, while residential storage inventory digestion is nearly complete, with shipments gradually normalizing. Commercial and industrial storage is gaining momentum. By 2026, Europe’s new energy storage installations are expected to reach 50GWh, up 43% year-on-year.
4) **Australian Market**: High volatility in the electricity market creates significant arbitrage opportunities for energy storage. Development is expected to accelerate with capacity investment plans and residential storage subsidies.
**Supply Side** 1) **Overseas Expansion**: Many Chinese energy storage system integrators and battery cell manufacturers are expanding abroad. From January to September, Chinese companies secured overseas energy storage partnerships totaling over 19.6GW/208.09GWh, primarily in the Middle East, Australia, and Europe. Inverter exports reached $7.436 billion from January to October, up 6.38% year-on-year. Leading firms are poised to secure more high-margin overseas orders.
2) **From Price Competition to Value Competition**: The rapid development of independent energy storage emphasizes lifecycle performance, requiring stronger hardware capabilities and operational management. System integrators with superior hardware, software, and lifecycle management will likely dominate.
**Investment Recommendations** 1) **System Integrators**: Sungrow Power (300274.SZ), HyperStrong (688411.SH), Canadian Solar (688472.SH), Trina Solar (688599.SH), CSG Smart Energy (688248.SH). 2) **PCS Manufacturers**: Sineng Electric (300827.SZ), Deye Technology (605117.SH), Aiko Solar (688717.SH), Sinexcel (300693.SZ), KSTAR (002518.SZ), Kehua Data (002335.SZ), GoodWe (688390.SH), Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ). 3) **Battery Cell Manufacturers**: CATL (300750.SZ, 03750), EVE Energy (300014.SZ). 4) **Thermal Management Providers**: Envicool (002837.SZ), Tongfei (300990.SZ), Shenling Environment (301018.SZ).
**Risk Warnings** Persistent price declines, weaker-than-expected policy support, deteriorating international trade conditions, intensifying competition, and significant currency fluctuations.
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