Gold's latest market trend analysis: On January 12th, a fundamental analysis of gold: The U.S. Department of Labor released the December 2025 non-farm payrolls report last Friday (January 9th). Data showed the economy added 50,000 new jobs for the month, falling short of the 73,000 jobs widely anticipated by Wall Street economists and also weaker than the revised figure of 56,000 jobs in November. This signals a further slowdown in the U.S. labor market towards the end of 2025, with full-year hiring demand noticeably weakening. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5%, providing some support to the market. Following the data release, financial markets reacted moderately but with divergent directions. The gold market does not necessarily require lower interest rates to continue its ascent, but expectations for a Federal Reserve pivot towards a more dovish stance following the weak labor market data are adding momentum to gold's rise. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported weaker-than-expected job growth in December, gold prices began testing the initial resistance level around $4500. At the close of the U.S. market on Friday (January 9th), spot gold settled at $4509.03 per ounce, gaining $31.86 or 0.71% on the day, and posting a weekly increase of $176.83 or 4.08%. Despite the labor market slowdown, economists note its resilience remains sufficient to support economic activity. This combination reinforces the Fed's belief that the labor market is cooling as planned. For investors, this further strengthens the rationale for interest rate cuts in early 2026. Although there is no pressing need for a rate cut later this month, analysts believe the downward path for interest rates will continue to provide medium-term support for precious metals.
Gold technical analysis: The current chart shows that gold's ebbs and flows follow their own rhythm, and price movements adhere to trends. On Friday, gold once again broke through the $4500 level, influenced by the non-farm payrolls data, reaching a high of $4517 before pausing for a corrective pullback. The price found a temporary low near $4481 during the late U.S. session before climbing higher again. In the short term, this surge is driven partly by the prevailing trend's momentum and partly by the impact of the non-farm payrolls data. The disappointing U.S. December jobs figures, coupled with market expectations of potential Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks, have fueled a strong risk-off sentiment, keeping bulls firmly in control. Technically, the daily moving average system continues its steady ascent, maintaining a bullish alignment in the short term. The weekly chart also shows a single bearish candle following a series of bullish ones, a pattern typical of a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend. Key technical indicators remain in strong bullish territory, with the bullish momentum histogram expanding, signaling a clear upward trajectory. There is potential for further gains towards the historical high near $4550. The primary support level is identified around $4480, the pullback low from early Saturday, which could serve as a key pivot point for future bullish/bearish sentiment. For the coming week, the strategy should initially focus on long positions aligned with the bullish structure. A shift in direction should only be considered if the price faces repeated resistance and shows sustained decline. For Monday, if the price retraces first, consider buying near the $4495-4490 range, with a stop-loss set below $4480, targeting profits around $4540. In summary, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the $4570-4590 zone, while key short-term support below lies around the $4520-4500 area.
Crude oil's latest market trend analysis: The international crude oil market showed a significant rebound last Thursday after two consecutive days of declines. Brent crude oil saw intraday gains widen to as much as 5%, reaching a fresh two-week high, indicating a rapid shift in market sentiment from caution to a more bullish bias. During Friday's Asian trading session, U.S. crude oil experienced a slight pullback, approaching a dense resistance zone, trading near $58 per barrel in the short term. From a short-term fundamental perspective, bearish factors have not completely dissipated. Plans by the U.S. to sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude to domestic refiners, alongside the latest data showing increases in both U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, theoretically exert downward pressure on prices. However, the market's current pricing logic appears to focus more on near-to-medium-term supply disruption risks rather than isolated inventory data changes. The situation in Venezuela remains a key variable under assessment by investors.
Crude oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices entered a consolidation phase after touching the vicinity of $54.80. The price closed with a sizable bearish candlestick, and the moving average system is exerting pressure, maintaining a bearish alignment, indicating a downward medium-term objective trend. Currently, both the primary and secondary subjective trends for crude oil point downwards. Following the principle of trend alternation, the medium-term downward trajectory for crude oil remains intact. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, the price has established a new low in its secondary decline, although the pace of descent has slowed compared to the previous trading day. The moving averages on this timeframe are also in a bearish arrangement, confirming the short-term downward objective trend. The MACD indicator is weaving below the zero line, with bearish momentum holding the advantage. It is anticipated that after a minor rebound during the day, crude oil prices still face the risk of continuing their decline. In summary, the recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the $60.5-61.5 zone, while key short-term support below lies around the $58.0-57.0 area.
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