Apple Market Perspective
Market News and Key Data On the futures front, the Apple 2605 contract closed yesterday at 9,598 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 79 yuan per ton or 0.83% from the previous day. In the spot market, the price for 80# Grade 1 and 2 late Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia stood at 4.00 yuan per jin, unchanged from the prior day. The spot basis against the AP05 contract was -1,598, down by 79 points. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price for 70# and above semi-premium late Fuji apples was 4.35 yuan per jin, also steady, with the spot basis at -898 against AP05, decreasing by 79 points.
Recent market updates indicate that trading of stored apples in production areas is generally moderate. Movement of average and lower-quality goods from growers continues to face challenges. In northwestern regions, traders primarily ship their own inventories, with slow transactions for standard-quality grower commodities. In Shandong producing areas, a limited number of traders are seeking high-quality goods, and export-related purchases are conducted as needed. Prices for average-quality grower supplies are currently quite mixed, and trading activity remains subdued. Post-holiday arrivals at sales region markets have decreased, and terminal traders are not actively procuring. In Qixia, prices for 80# Grade 1 and 2 red-striped apples range between 3.2 and 4.5 yuan per jin, while standard 80# goods are around 2.3 to 3.0 yuan per jin. In Shaanxi's Luochuan production area, outbound prices for growers' standard goods are between 3.5 and 4.0 yuan per jin, and semi-premium goods are priced from 4.0 to 4.5 yuan per jin. In Gansu's Jingning area, semi-premium goods fetch 5.0 to 7.5 yuan per jin, with growers' average commodities priced variably from 3.7 to 5.0 yuan per jin.
Market Analysis Apple futures prices experienced narrow fluctuations yesterday, with overall market sentiment remaining cautious following the holiday period. Qingming Festival consumption fell short of expectations. The trend in production areas continues to show strength for high-quality goods and weakness for standard varieties. Inventory of premium Gansu apples is nearly depleted, supporting firm prices, while movement of standard supplies in Shaanxi and Shandong is slow, increasing growers' urgency to sell. Transactions are primarily small-scale restocking. Terminal sales in consumption regions are sluggish, with traders purchasing cautiously. Substitute fruits like citrus are significantly diverting demand. Nationwide cold storage inventory levels are at historically low levels; however, the proportion of premium fruit within the remaining stock is continuously declining, postponing the destocking pressure for standard-quality apples. The flowering period for the new apple season is earlier than usual, strengthening yield increase expectations. Nonetheless, the risk of frost in mid-to-late April has not been entirely eliminated, with the frost damage risk assessed as light to moderate. In the short term, the market may continue its consolidative pattern.
Strategy Neutral.
Risks Sales momentum in consumption regions, destocking pressure for standard-quality apples, new season yield increase expectations, and weather uncertainties.
Jujube Market Perspective
Market News and Key Data For futures, the Jujube 2605 contract closed at 8,410 yuan per ton yesterday, up 100 yuan per ton or 1.20% from the previous session. In the spot market, the price for Grade 1 grey jujubes in Hebei was 7.90 yuan per kilogram, unchanged, with the spot basis against the CJ05 contract at -510, down 100 points.
Recent market information indicates that the acquisition price range for Xinjiang grey jujubes from the 2025 production season is referenced between 5.00 and 6.50 yuan per kilogram. In the Aksu area, mainstream prices for standard goods are around 5.00 to 5.30 yuan per kilogram; in Aral, they are 5.20 to 5.80 yuan per kilogram; transaction prices in Kashi regiment farms are referenced at 6.20 to 6.40 yuan per kilogram; and prices in Maigaiti area are around 6.00 to 6.30 yuan per kilogram. Temperatures in production areas are normal, with farmers actively engaged in field management. Jujube trees in major producing regions have begun to bud. On April 7, nearly ten trucks arrived at the parking area of Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market, with arrivals mainly consisting of off-grade goods. Traders selected goods as needed, resulting in average transaction volumes. At Guangdong's Ruyifang market, three trucks arrived, and market prices were generally stable, with downstream purchases made on demand and moderate turnover.
Market Analysis Jujube futures continued their weak performance yesterday. Overall supply in production areas is ample, and processing plants report average sales. Currently, higher accumulated temperatures may lead to earlier budding of jujube trees, warranting attention to weather risks. Trading atmosphere in sales region markets is subdued. Arrivals at Cui'erzhuang and Ruyifang are stable, but downstream procurement is primarily need-based. Rising temperatures are further diverting consumption away from jujubes. Inventory levels are relatively high compared to recent years, with a slow destocking pace. Pressure from carried-over inventory is prominent, keeping spot market conditions under sustained pressure. In the short term, the combination of the off-season for consumption and ample supply suggests the futures market may mainly experience low-level consolidation as it seeks a bottom.
Strategy Neutral.
Risks Substitution by seasonal fruits, inventory reduction pressure, and uncertainties regarding weather conditions for the new season.
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