On Thursday, August 7th, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year yield nearly flat, closing at 4.679%. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield ended at 4.258%. Spot gold saw an initial rise followed by a decline, briefly touching the $4300 mark early in the session—its highest level since June 18th—before giving up all intraday gains to close 0.15% lower at $4240.69 per ounce. Spot silver ultimately closed 0.89% lower at $61.51 per ounce. International oil prices surged sharply, as uncertainties surrounding global energy transportation remain unresolved. WTI crude accelerated its rally during the U.S. session, ultimately closing 4.18% higher at $77.43 per barrel, while Brent crude closed 4.9% higher at $82.77 per barrel.
The gold market opened at $4247.4 per ounce yesterday. The price initially rallied, hitting a daily high of $4304.7 per ounce, before encountering resistance from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline and the 5-day moving average on the monthly chart, leading to a pullback. The daily low was set at $4222.6 per ounce before the market consolidated. The daily candlestick ultimately closed at $4239.9 per ounce, forming a shooting star pattern with a long upper wick. Following this pattern, gold bulls now face the test of the upcoming non-farm payrolls data.
In summary, after several weeks of consolidation, gold broke upward and now faces its first major test—the non-farm payrolls report. The data's strength or weakness will further influence the price. However, based on the overall technical pattern, the trend remains bullish, with the key support level at $4200. The operational strategy for today is to prioritize buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Upside resistance is seen at the $4303-$4360 area, while support lies in the $4210-$4190 zone.
The U.S. crude oil market opened at $75.28 per barrel yesterday. The price initially declined, hitting a daily low of $74.71 per barrel, before staging a strong rally that reached a daily high of $78.71 per barrel. After some consolidation, the daily candlestick closed at $78.41 per barrel, forming a large bullish candlestick with a slightly longer lower wick than upper wick. Following this pattern, oil bears are once again facing a test.
In summary, after encountering resistance at higher levels, oil prices experienced a sharp correction. Following a period of low-level consolidation, the market has formed a stabilization pattern near the lows. Today's focus is on the sustainability of the bullish momentum. The strategy is to prioritize buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Upside resistance is at the $79.6-$82.5 area, with support at the $76.6-$74.4 zone.
The Nasdaq index opened at 29434.29 yesterday. The market initially rallied to a high of 29551.83, before pulling back to a daily low of 29109.88. It then rebounded strongly, reaching a new high of 29565.93 before consolidating. The daily candlestick closed at 29373.52, forming a hammer pattern with a very long lower wick. This pattern suggests an increased probability of further upside testing.
In summary, the Nasdaq has maintained a pattern of rising early in the week and then pulling back, which appears to be forming a five-wave structure. It is currently in what appears to be a fourth-wave correction phase. If the market bottom-fishes today, it is highly likely to challenge previous highs. The strategy is to prioritize buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Upside resistance is at the 29965-30200 area, with support at the 29300-29000 zone. Of course, the non-farm payrolls data will be a key focus.
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