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2026.01.30 Futures Trading Guidance Summary (Full Version) I. Core Market Assessment (From Macro to Micro) 1. Overall Commodity Trend Intense Volatility: After two consecutive days of gains, domestic commodities surged in early trading only to retreat; international markets (precious metals, crude oil) also exhibited significant swings, with fierce battles between bulls and bears and no clear sustained unidirectional momentum. 2. Strongest/Weakest Sectors and Core Products Strongest/Weakest Sectors and Core Products
Sector Direction Representative Sector Core Product Bull/Bear Attribute Daily Performance Highlights
Strong Sector Precious Metals Shanghai Silver, International Gold Bull Shanghai Silver main contract rose 8.32%, hitting a new record high; International Gold showed a V-shaped intraday reversal with an amplitude exceeding 10%
Strong Sector Nonferrous Metals Shanghai Copper, LME Copper Bull Shanghai Copper up 6.18%, LME Copper up 4.73%; Chilean copper mine output decline supports supply contraction expectations
Strong Sector Energy & Chemicals Fuel Oil, Crude Oil Bull Shanghai Crude Oil rose 6%; Fuel Oil followed cost increases; Iranian Strait military exercises boosted geopolitical premium
Weak Sector Photovoltaic Raw Materials Polysilicon Bear Polysilicon 2605 contract fell 6.18%, hitting a low of 47,005 yuan/ton; High inventory + depleted demand exert pressure
Volatile Sector Chemicals PVC2605 Short-term Bull (Trial Position) Staged profit-taking after afternoon rally; maintains volatile pattern; high inventory not fundamentally improved
3. Core Conclusion Prioritize profit-taking and position control, supplement with light trial positions: Facing intense market volatility,果断 took profits on previous long positions to lock in gains; only initiated a light trial long position on PVC2605; simultaneously focused on the continuity of the polysilicon bearish trend; strictly controlled position sizing and drawdown risk throughout, avoiding blind chasing of rallies or panic selling. II. Global Market Context 1. International Level • Macro Policy Tug-of-War: Trump's demand for Fed rate cuts contrasts with Powell's "maintain high rates" stance,加剧ing USD exchange rate volatility (USD/CAD hit a 16-month low), creating混乱 in market liquidity expectations; • Geopolitical Risks: Iran plans live-fire military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz; Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks progress but uncertainty remains, boosting safe-haven demand for crude oil and precious metals; • Market Volatility: International precious metals saw intraday振幅 exceeding 8%; Bitcoin and other risk assets fell sharply by over 6%; US stocks were mixed; global risk appetite diverged; • Industry Dynamics: Chilean copper mine output fell 1.6% in 2025; tight LME copper inventories support prices; overseas energy prices rose boosted by geopolitical events. 2. Domestic Level • Regulatory Notice: The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued risk warnings, emphasizing increased uncertainty before the Spring Festival and urging investors to trade rationally; • Product Performance: Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Copper等 led gains in domestic commodities; polysilicon and other PV raw materials fell sharply due to the interplay of high inventory and production cut expectations; • Policy Dynamics: China and UK achieved trade cooperation results; whisky import tariffs were reduced; domestic commodities were significantly affected by linkages with international markets. III. Core Trading Products & Strategy Execution 1. Previous Long Positions (Profit-taking Exit) • Fuel Oil: Long position; triggered被动 profit-taking in early session due to commodity pullback; realized 34% profit overall; currently fully exited (Core logic: rising crude costs + geopolitical premium; take profits to avoid correction); • Plastic: Long position; exited with profit-taking in early session同步; realized 25% profit; currently fully exited (Core logic: followed energy sector rally; lock in gains amid加剧ing volatility); • Shanghai Nickel/Shanghai Tin/Shanghai Copper/Shanghai Silver: Long positions; exited in stages yesterday or被动 exited; Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Silver realized over 63% profit; Shanghai Tin realized 13% profit; Shanghai Nickel exited via stop-loss due to volatility; currently fully cleared (Core logic: significant prior gains in precious metals, nonferrous metals; realize profits utilizing volatile conditions). 2. Trial Positions for the Day (Light Positioning) • PVC2605: Strategy Direction: Trial long position; position size not exceeding 10% of total equity; Key Parameters: Entry price 4900-5040 points; Stop-loss 4870-4900 points; First profit-taking target 4970-4980 points; Subsequent target 5100-5150 points; Intraday Execution: Afternoon price rally triggered profit-taking; initially reduced position by half/one-third; continued staged profit-taking at 10%, 15%, 20% profit levels;同步 raised stop-loss to 4970-4980 points; currently holding remaining position lightly (Core logic: short-term sentiment recovery + cost support; light trial without overstaying). 3. Watched Products (Bearish Trend Monitoring) • Polysilicon 2605: Strategy Direction: Monitor continuity of bearish trend; no position opened yet; Logical Support: Contract fell 6.18% today; high inventory叠加 demand depletion after export tax rebate window closure; supply-side production cut expectations not yet offsetting inventory pressure; awaiting suitable short entry opportunity. IV. Overall Trading Results 1. Profit Performance • Previous long positions (Fuel Oil, Plastic, Shanghai Copper, Shanghai Silver, etc.) all exited profitably; Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Silver profits exceeded 63%; Fuel Oil profit 34%; Plastic profit 25%; Shanghai Tin profit 13%; substantial gains overall; • Today's trial long position on PVC2605 realized 10%-20% profit; remaining position held lightly; no loss-making products; overall achieved "steady profits without losses". 2. Strategy Effectiveness • Precise Timing:果断 took profits on previous winners in early session, avoiding pullback risk; only initiated light trial on PVC2605 in afternoon, avoiding盲目 expansion into new products, adhering to "don't overstay in volatile markets" principle; • Efficient Risk Control: Executed "staged profit-taking + trailing stop-loss" throughout; locked in profits阶梯式; dynamically adjusted stop-loss levels; effectively controlled drawdown; strict single-product position limit under 10%, no heavy exposure risk; • Accurate Trend Assessment: Correctly identified strong precious metals and nonferrous metals trend (exited but did not misjudge); simultaneously identified polysilicon short opportunity; trial product PVC2605 aligned with short-term volatile recovery rhythm. 3. Market Alignment Trading actions高度契合 the day's "intense volatility, sector divergence" characteristics; profit-taking strategy avoided correction risk in previous popular products; trial strategy captured local recovery opportunities; no trend misjudgment or operational lag occurred. V. Review & Follow-up Thoughts 1. Position Management • Remaining PVC2605 position: Continue using 4970-4980 points as core stop-loss; exit fully if broken; if price reaches subsequent 5100-5150 point target, exit in stages, not chasing peak returns; • No new position plans: Previous profitable positions fully exited; will not re-enter short-term, awaiting clear stabilization signals. 2. Potential Opportunities & Risks • Potential Opportunities: Short Opportunity: Monitor polysilicon 2605 bearish trend; if breaks key 47,000 yuan/ton support,可以考虑 light short position, stop-loss above 49,500 yuan/ton; Long Opportunity: Monitor support levels for Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Copper on pullbacks; if geopolitical risks escalate or supply-demand tightens further, await re-entry timing; • Core Risks: Volatility risk from pre-Spring Festival capital outflows; risk of sudden shifts in global macro policy (Fed rate decisions, Trump policy moves); Risk of超预期 geopolitical conflict (Iran exercises, Russia-Ukraine talks) causing crude oil, precious metals surges; risk of polysilicon反弹 if production cuts fall short of expectations. 3. Strategy Optimization Direction • Position Management: Strictly control future single-product positions under 10%, overall portfolio under 30% to handle pre-holiday uncertainty; • Operational Rhythm: Reduce trade frequency; focus on "profit-taking primary, trialing secondary" in volatile markets; avoid frequent direction switching; • Product Selection: Focus on high-liquidity, clear-trend products (e.g., precious metals, nonferrous metals, polysilicon); avoid low-volatility products with unclear supply-demand conflicts. 4. Core Approach for Tomorrow's Operations • Main Theme: Primarily light positioning and observation; do not actively open new positions; • Key Actions: Closely watch PVC2605 stop-loss level, exit if broken; monitor polysilicon bearish trend continuity, avoid盲目 chasing shorts; • Risk Control Core: Strictly execute stop-loss discipline; avoid heavy market entry; guard against gap risk from night session and overseas market movements.
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