In Tuesday's Asian trading session, spot gold retreated to around $4620, showing a notable pullback from recent highs and consolidating after an initial surge. Market structure indicates that gold is currently caught in a tug-of-war between multiple factors, with short-term bearish signals gradually strengthening.
Fundamentally, the Middle East situation continues to revolve around the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump's earlier deadline setting and hawkish signals briefly boosted safe-haven demand. However, as the market gradually digests related risks, the marginal support from geopolitical factors for gold prices has significantly weakened, failing to drive a sustained upward trend. This suggests the market is currently more focused on macroeconomic variables than single-event drivers.
Simultaneously, the macroeconomic environment is exerting clear pressure on gold. Federal Reserve policy expectations remain tight, with widespread market anticipation that interest rates will stay elevated for an extended period. Additionally, the U.S. dollar index continues to trade in a high range, reinforcing its suppressive effect on gold. Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar typically reduces its attractiveness to non-dollar investors, thereby curbing price increases.
On the inflation front, persistently high oil prices are reinforcing expectations of sticky inflation, which is also dampening expectations for interest rate cuts to some extent. Overall, the combination of "high rates + strong dollar" is becoming the dominant factor for gold's current trajectory, making it difficult for its safe-haven attributes to fully exert themselves.
Technically, on the daily chart, gold encountered significant resistance after touching a dense pressure zone during its previous rally, compounded by resistance from a descending trendline, forming a typical "false breakout + pullback" structure. The current price has fallen back below the pressure zone, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. Key resistance lies in the $4680-$4700 range, an area combining previous highs and trendline pressure, making a decisive breakout difficult in the short term. Support below is seen at $4550, with further support at $4400; a break below the latter would confirm a continuation of the medium-term correction. Momentum indicators show MACD exhibiting signs of a bearish crossover, while the RSI has retreated from high levels to a neutral zone, indicating clearly weakened upward momentum. On the 4-hour chart, gold displays a structure of oscillating decline, with lower highs forming a short-term descending trendline resistance. Repeated failures to break above this trendline during rebounds suggest strong selling pressure overhead. The short-term moving average system has turned to a bearish alignment, strengthening the downward signal. Immediate resistance is positioned at $4650-$4680; if rebounds fail to breach this zone, the corrective rhythm is likely to persist. Key support below is watched at $4550, with a break potentially accelerating the decline.
The dominant logic in the gold market is shifting from "geopolitically driven" to "driven by rates and the dollar." Although the Middle East situation still provides some support, its influence has notably diminished, while the high-rate environment and strong dollar continue to exert persistent pressure on prices. Technically, gold has entered a medium-term adjustment phase and is unlikely to restart an uptrend before key resistance levels are broken. Future focus should remain on dollar movements and shifts in rate expectations, with gold prices expected to maintain a range-bound, slightly weak pattern.
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