According to the annual "In Gold We Trust" report by Incrementum AG, gold experienced an unprecedented surge at the start of the year, followed by significant volatility, and is currently in a consolidation phase. The report notes that gold's performance aligns perfectly with expectations, as the precious metal continues to solidify its role as a key monetary asset within the global economy.
In the 20th-anniversary edition of the comprehensive report titled "Back to the Monetary Future," lead authors Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek explain that gold's historic rise is not a speculative anomaly but part of a broader "remonetization" trend driven by geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarization, inflationary volatility, and declining trust in fiat currencies.
The authors state, "The future of money lies in its history," describing gold as an increasingly important monetary anchor as the post-1971 fiat currency system shows "undeniable signs of fatigue."
Following a 64.4% gain in 2025—the strongest annual performance since 1979—the gold price reached a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January 2026.
The analysts also highlight that both gold and the "In Gold We Trust" report have evolved significantly over the past two decades. The inaugural report was just 20 pages long when gold traded around $670 per ounce. This year's edition exceeds 400 pages, with the gold price having risen over 600% cumulatively.
Despite the remarkable price appreciation, the authors believe this long-term bull market is far from over. The report states, "The 'Golden Decade' announced in the 2020 'In Gold We Trust' report is in full swing. Since then, the dollar-denominated gold price has increased by 165%."
The analysts note that the market is currently in the middle of its "public participation phase," which they describe as "the longest and most active period of a bull market." Supported by robust long-term fundamentals, Incrementum AG's fund managers have raised their long-term price outlook.
The authors write, "Our decade-long target of $4,800 per ounce by 2030, proposed in the 2020 'In Gold We Trust' report, was achieved in 2026. We now turn our attention to an alternative target under an inflationary scenario: $8,900 per ounce by the end of this decade."
The report adds that if current remonetization dynamics accelerate further, "significantly higher gold prices" could ultimately materialize.
Incrementum's bullish view is based on the assessment that gold is increasingly seen as a neutral reserve asset, rather than merely a commodity or safe-haven trade, especially within the rapidly evolving global monetary order. The report states, "'Pax Americana'—the political, military, economic, and particularly monetary order that has shaped the global system since 1945—is coming to an end."
The authors point to surging central bank demand as one of the clearest signals of this shift. After three consecutive years of annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes, central banks bought an additional 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. The report also highlights growing discussions around a formal revaluation of U.S. gold reserves. While the market price hovers around $4,600 per ounce, the U.S. Treasury continues to value its official gold holdings at the statutory price of $42.22 per ounce.
The authors note, "A revaluation of U.S. gold reserves is no longer far-fetched speculation but a political possibility quietly gaining credibility."
Meanwhile, Incrementum believes gold remains significantly under-owned relative to the overall financial system. The report estimates that privately held gold constitutes only about 2.7% of global financial assets, indicating that institutional participation in the current bull market remains limited. The analysts state, "Gold is by no means a 'crowded trade.' On the contrary, it is a party where the first guests are just beginning to arrive."
The analysts expect demand in the next phase of the gold market to shift from central banks to investors. The report warns that rising sovereign debt remains one of the strongest long-term drivers supporting gold prices, noting that global debt climbed to a record $348 trillion by the end of 2025, while U.S. debt exceeded $39 trillion earlier this year.
They add that in this environment, the traditional role of government bonds as "risk-free assets" is deteriorating rapidly, as inflation-adjusted returns remain deeply negative, forcing investors to seek alternative stores of value.
Although gold's long-term trend is built on solid foundations, Incrementum cautions investors that the path upward is likely to remain volatile. The analysts state, "In the short term, gold should take a breather; in the medium term, the trend will be upward; and in the long term, it will return to the core of the monetary system. By early summer, we expect gold to trade in a choppy, sideways range between $4,500 and $4,950 per ounce."
Meanwhile, following a significant correction earlier this year, the report warns that rising bond yields, liquidity pressures, and broader market volatility could continue to trigger short-term price pullbacks. However, the authors add that they view any such corrections as buying opportunities.
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