JPMorgan has released a research report maintaining an "Overweight" rating on CATL (03750) with a target price of HK$725. The firm notes that market concerns have expanded from slowing demand growth in 2027 to include overcapacity, declining utilization rates, and a new round of price competition. Recently, the supplier diversification strategy adopted by Xiaomi Corporation-W (01810) and news of Li Auto Inc-W (02015) developing in-house batteries have further intensified pessimism within the industry.
However, the bank believes that 2027 will not repeat the overcapacity cycle witnessed between 2023 and 2024. It points out that CATL's market share in China's electric vehicle battery sector has climbed from 44% last year to 48% in the first half of this year, indicating its market position remains intact. The firm maintains its net profit forecasts for this year and next at RMB 95 billion and RMB 116 billion, respectively.
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