Tungsten prices have surged dramatically in 2025, leading the metals bull market, with JIAXIN INTL RES (03858) emerging as a standout performer. This week, tungsten prices continued their upward trajectory, with key raw material prices rising 12%-18% weekly, bringing the year-to-date increase to over 200%. Tungsten has become the most aggressively appreciating metal of the year.
Amid this rally, JIAXIN INTL RES, hailed as the "king of elasticity in the tungsten price cycle," has shone brightly. Since its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 28, 2025, the stock has surged 306%, closing at a record high of HK$44.38 on December 18, compared to its IPO price of HK$10.92. However, a deeper analysis of the tungsten market dynamics and JIAXIN INTL RES's fundamentals suggests the stock may only be halfway through its upward journey.
With tungsten prices expected to remain strong or climb further, coupled with the company's accelerating production capacity, JIAXIN INTL RES holds significant potential for further gains, possibly entering a new phase of value discovery.
**Long-Term Tungsten Price Outlook: ¥450,000–500,000 per Ton** Since July 2025, chemical and industrial raw material prices have surged, drawing market attention. Among these, tungsten has stood out as the top performer in the metals sector, with its year-to-date gains outpacing all other commodities.
Latest data from China Tungsten Online on December 19 shows that core tungsten product prices have hit new highs. For instance, 65% black tungsten concentrate reached ¥430,000 per metric ton, up 15.3% weekly and 202.1% year-to-date. Meanwhile, domestic ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices rose to ¥650,000 per ton, up 17.1% weekly and 208.1% year-to-date. Tungsten powder prices surpassed ¥1,000 per kilogram, marking a 13.2% weekly increase and a 226% year-to-date surge.
The rally is driven by tight supply and strong demand. On the supply side, China's tungsten mining quotas for 2025 were cut by 4,000 tons year-on-year, while major production hubs like Hunan and Jiangxi face limited expansion. Overseas, the Sangdong tungsten mine's delayed launch has exacerbated supply constraints.
Demand is rising across multiple sectors. In photovoltaics, tungsten wire is replacing high-carbon steel wire for thinner silicon wafers, with global tungsten demand for solar applications expected to hit 12,000 tons in 2025. In defense and high-end manufacturing, orders for tungsten carbide surged 42% year-on-year, while domestic tool production for CNC machines rose to 65%. Additionally, China's export restrictions on tungsten products, implemented in February 2025, have pushed up global prices.
Analysts predict that tungsten prices will remain strong in the short term, with long-term price support at ¥450,000–500,000 per ton due to persistent supply-demand imbalances.
**JIAXIN INTL RES: The "Elasticity King" with Multiple Advantages** JIAXIN INTL RES is uniquely positioned in this tungsten boom, thanks to its ownership of the world's largest open-pit tungsten mine and strategic backing from state-owned enterprises.
The company operates the Bakuta Tungsten Mine in Kazakhstan, which holds 227,300 tons of tungsten trioxide (WO₃) resources, ranking as the world's fourth-largest tungsten deposit and the largest open-pit mine. Its shareholders—Jiangxi Copper (41.65%) and China Railway Construction (15%)—provide key advantages: Jiangxi Copper, a major tungsten refiner, ensures stable offtake, while China Railway Construction reduces logistics costs by 15–20%.
Production is ramping up in sync with the price rally. The Bakuta mine began commercial production in April 2025, targeting 3.3 million tons of ore processing annually. In H1 2025, the company processed 945,000 tons, yielding 1,205 tons of tungsten concentrate. H2 targets include 1.65 million tons of ore and 3,638 tons of concentrate—triple H1 output. A second-phase expansion in Q1 2027 will boost annual capacity to 4.95 million tons.
Cost advantages further enhance profitability. Open-pit mining and lower labor/energy costs in Kazakhstan will drive down operating expenses to ¥113 per ton of ore and ¥49,000 per ton of concentrate by 2027.
**Potential for a 10x Rally?** JIAXIN INTL RES's IPO was oversubscribed 1,200 times, raising HK$144 billion, and its stock has tripled since listing. However, current prices may not fully reflect its long-term value.
By 2027, the company is projected to produce 13,700 tons of tungsten concentrate. At a mid-term price of ¥450,000–500,000 per ton and costs of ¥49,000 per ton, gross profits could reach ¥5.5–6 billion. If prices exceed expectations, earnings could be even higher.
With its resource quality, production growth, and cost efficiency, JIAXIN INTL RES could mirror Zijin Mining's 10x surge in 2021. Investors may consider accumulating shares on dips to capitalize on this cyclical and growth opportunity.
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