Major A-share indices closed higher after a volatile trading session on February 12, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1 percent. Trading volume saw a slight increase from the previous day, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan. The market movement follows the recent launch of a multi-department "Happy Spring Shopping" initiative, which has allocated 62.5 billion yuan in state subsidies directly to local governments. Additionally, a pilot program for incentivized invoices in 50 cities distributed over 1 billion yuan in prizes during the Spring Festival holiday. These measures represent not only substantial support for boosting domestic demand but also signal a shift towards a more coordinated policy approach involving fiscal, financial, and industrial sectors. Sectors such as home appliances, automobiles, and contact-based services like catering and tourism are poised to benefit, as the consumer sector transitions from expectation-driven trading to a phase of fundamental validation.
Overseas, U.S. non-farm payrolls for January surged by 130,000, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the total employment figure for 2025 was substantially revised downward by 898,000. The strong data temporarily pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, potentially dampening market expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. Domestically, the pre-holiday effect is leading to thinner trading volumes and faster sector rotation, which is considered a typical pattern. Investors may focus on two clear pathways: first, cyclical sectors with relatively strong earnings realization driven by price increases, and second, new quality productive forces aligned with supportive policies and industrial trends. Post-holiday, market drivers are expected to gradually shift from macroeconomic expectations to microeconomic profit verification.
On the news front, a press conference held on February 11 detailed arrangements for the 2026 "Happy Spring Shopping" Spring Festival event. Officials announced that the first tranche of 62.5 billion yuan in state subsidies had been distributed to localities, with intensified efforts during the nine-day holiday period. The incentivized invoice pilot in 50 cities involved prize money exceeding 1 billion yuan. This initiative is notable for its coordinated multi-department approach. The detailed policy design for holiday consumption scenarios reflects a broader shift in macro-policy from broad stimulus to targeted, scenario-specific measures. The concentrated release of subsidies and incentive mechanisms provides direct fundamental support for contact-based service industries. In the medium to long term, service consumption is expected to become a core driver of domestic demand growth.
In the United States, data released on Wednesday showed January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, far surpassing the consensus forecast of 65,000 and marking the largest gain since April 2025. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.3%. Concurrently, however, the total non-farm employment figure for March 2025 was revised down by 898,000, significantly reducing the full-year 2025 job growth estimate. The stronger-than-expected January data has prompted a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory, incorporating the possibility of delayed rate cuts. The figures suggest that while overall hiring slowed in 2025, the labor market is not in a recessionary decline, with resilience seen in sectors like healthcare and construction. Market attention will now turn to upcoming CPI data for further clues on the rate cut timeline.
Domestically, the State Council issued guidelines to improve the national unified power market system, outlining staged goals: achieving a basic framework by 2030, with approximately 70% of electricity consumption traded through market mechanisms, and completing the system by 2035. The document notably outlines a path for exploring capacity markets, providing a long-term revenue mechanism for flexible resources like coal power and new energy storage, which helps stabilize investment expectations. Differentiated market access for renewable energy and innovations in green power trading directly address export companies' compliance needs. The policy provides clear medium-to-long-term institutional benefits for related industrial chains, including power IT, virtual power plants, and energy storage equipment, potentially shifting their business models from policy-driven to market-driven.
In market performance, the three major A-share indices closed higher on February 12. The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.05% to 4,134.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index advanced 0.86% to 14,283.02 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.32% to 3,328.06 points. The STAR 100 Index rose 1.53% to 1,645.06 points. Leading the gains among sectors were Comprehensive, Electronics, and Power Equipment, while Personal Care, Retail, and Textiles & Apparel lagged. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners.
Total market turnover increased to 2,161.001 billion yuan. The balance of margin lending declined from the previous session.
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