Abstract
XP Inc. will report its quarterly results on February 12, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS trends alongside guidance for its core franchises.
Market Forecast
Consensus compiled from the latest company-tied projections points to current-quarter revenue of $4.79 billion, EBIT of $1.51 billion, and adjusted EPS of 2.52, implying year-over-year increases of 7.66%, 1.12%, and 14.34%, respectively; margin commentary implies focus on gross profit margin stability and net profit margin resilience. The main business is expected to sustain revenue momentum through market-making and services, while outlook hinges on trading activity and client engagement. The most promising segment is fair-value-through-profit financial instruments, a core engine for near-term growth, with revenue expected to remain above $4.19 billion and benefiting from improved turnover compared with the year-ago quarter.
Last Quarter Review
XP Inc.’s last quarter delivered revenue of $4.66 billion, a gross profit margin of 69.22%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $1.32 billion, a net profit margin of 29.20%, and adjusted EPS of 2.46, all accompanied by year-over-year growth, including revenue up 7.92% and EPS up 12.33%. A notable highlight was EBIT of $1.53 billion, modestly exceeding prior estimates, supported by efficient cost control. Main business revenue was led by fair-value-through-profit financial instruments at $4.19 billion, services at $2.09 billion, and a negative contribution from other comprehensive income instruments at -$1.62 billion, reflecting portfolio positioning and valuation impacts; the leading growth came from fair-value-through-profit financial instruments.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business trajectory
Management’s revenue mix continues to be anchored by fair-value-through-profit financial instruments and service income derived from client activity, advisory, and execution. The guidance-implied revenue of $4.79 billion suggests stable activity across cash equities, derivatives, and fixed income, where spreads and turnover are the primary drivers of revenue capture. Gross profit margin near the recent 69.22% level is feasible if funding costs and liquidity provisioning costs stay contained. Net profit margin near 29.20% can hold if operating expenses and variable compensation remain aligned with top-line growth. Adjusted EPS at 2.52 indicates discipline in share-based compensation and tax rate management; it also reflects incremental operating leverage from revenue scaling. A key sensitivity is daily average revenue trades and client balances; a sustained pickup would expand revenue and offset cost headwinds, whereas a normalization in volatility could pressure top-line momentum.
Fast-growing fair-value instruments engine
The fair-value-through-profit financial instruments segment is positioned for incremental gains as client trading velocity and spreads show durability. With the last quarter at $4.19 billion, the current quarter’s revenue trajectory benefits from improved market breadth and heightened client flows, which typically enhance inventory management and hedging income. Pricing dispersion across assets can lift mark-to-market opportunities, and disciplined risk metrics support consistent capture of spread income without outsized drawdowns. Execution quality, internalization rates, and technology throughput influence realized margins; a higher system capacity enables lower slippage and costs, improving segment profitability. If client engagement persists through seasonally active periods, the segment should underpin consolidated revenue, offsetting pressure from weaker areas and leaving room for EBIT growth even amid controlled expense additions.
Service revenues and client activity
Service revenue of $2.09 billion last quarter signals healthy demand across advisory, execution services, and related client solutions. The current quarter outlook hinges on client onboarding, retention, and wallet share, especially within higher-value mandates. Robust engagement in corporate actions, deal flow, and cross-asset execution can support fee stability, and incremental technology investments tend to reduce unit costs while improving client experience. Revenue resilience is aided by breadth across products and geographies, which diversifies seasonality. The principal risk is a slowdown in corporate issuance or lower retail engagement if market volatility fades; mitigating factors include diversified fee streams and proactive client coverage that sustain activity even in mixed market conditions. Effective pricing and value-added analytics can lift average revenue per client, making EPS targets more achievable despite macro uncertainties.
Stock-price drivers this quarter
Investors will focus on the revenue run-rate versus guidance, margin sustainability, and any updates on expense plans or capital deployment. Deviations in gross profit margin from the recent 69.22% level will be parsed for changes in funding costs or mix shifts that influence spread capture. The net profit margin near 29.20% will be a key barometer for operating leverage; if variable compensation or technology spend outpaces revenue, EPS could track below the 2.52 mark. Market-wide liquidity, volatility, and client risk appetite remain essential swing factors for the fair-value-through-profit segment and service income. Any commentary on regulatory developments, balance sheet risk management, and hedging frameworks can recalibrate expectations for EBIT durability. Finally, guidance for subsequent quarters and color on client pipeline will shape how investors extrapolate current-quarter performance into the year’s trajectory.
Analyst Opinions
The prevailing tone among institutional previews is moderately bullish, with a majority anticipating in-line to slightly better results anchored by stable revenue and EPS progression. Analysts emphasize the contribution from fair-value-through-profit instruments as the linchpin for this quarter’s revenue, noting that spread capture and client activity are tracking favorably. Several previews highlight EBIT stability around $1.51 billion and adjusted EPS near 2.52 as achievable if expenses remain disciplined; a minority caution that a drop in volatility could compress revenue, but this view is not dominant. In the constructive camp, coverage points to the company’s consistent revenue execution and margin resilience as supportive of a mild beat on top-line or EPS. The bullish perspective focuses on operational throughput and client engagement as the foundation for sustained performance this quarter, with attention to guidance that can validate scalability into subsequent periods.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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