The competition among top-tier investment banks to secure underwriting roles for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history is drawing to a close, with AI unicorn Anthropic at the center of the action.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Morgan Stanley is in a prime position to clinch the coveted "lead left" underwriter role for the offering, while Goldman Sachs is expected to serve as the stabilization agent, overseeing the critical trading phase shortly after the company goes public.
Investors anticipate Anthropic's listing valuation could reach $2 trillion or more, which would surpass SpaceX and make it the largest IPO in history. If that valuation materializes, early backers stand to reap tens of billions of dollars in paper gains. The offering's performance is also poised to serve as a key barometer of investor appetite for high-growth AI enterprises.
Morgan Stanley Leads the Charge, Goldman Provides Support, and Others Join the Fray
Among the banks vying for a share of the deal, Morgan Stanley holds the most prominent position. The firm has been leading discussions with potential investors regarding Anthropic's offering price in recent weeks, a core responsibility of the "lead left" role, which controls valuation negotiations and determines which hedge funds, institutional investors, and sovereign wealth funds receive the largest stock allocations. This role also carries significant reputational weight on Wall Street.
However, insiders caution that Morgan Stanley's final appointment is not yet set in stone and could still change. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is slated to act as the stabilization agent. Interestingly, during SpaceX's IPO in June, the two banks swapped roles, with Goldman Sachs serving as the lead underwriter and Morgan Stanley as the stabilization agent, each pocketing $100 million from the $500 million fee pool shared among more than 20 participating institutions.
Additionally, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Barclays are also expected to secure significant roles in the transaction, given that these three banks have previously extended debt financing to Anthropic.
IPO Could Be Delayed Until Mid-October
Anthropic initially planned to publicly file its IPO prospectus as early as next week, but the timeline has not been finalized. According to the latest reports, the company has postponed the filing to late September, with the roadshow slated to begin in mid-October at the earliest, targeting a listing before the November midterm elections. The delay is tied to a $15 billion credit facility the company is finalizing, which must be secured before subsequent steps can proceed.
The offering comes on the heels of SpaceX's record-breaking $86 billion raise in June at a $1.78 trillion valuation, and there is significant scrutiny on whether Anthropic can sustain the high valuation momentum seen in AI assets.
Strong Revenue Growth, But Below Most Optimistic Expectations
Anthropic's valuation has surged over the past year, now exceeding $900 billion, with investors projecting an IPO valuation of over $2 trillion, more than double its current level. However, the company's revenue performance has not fully met the most aggressive market forecasts. In August, Anthropic told shareholders that its annualized revenue run rate for July reached $65 billion, a significant jump from $47 billion in May, but still short of the $80 billion annualized sales threshold some investors had anticipated.
Competitive pressures also loom large. OpenAI, Anthropic's primary rival, has been gaining momentum, recently releasing its latest AI model and touting it as the "world's most intelligent." Some market observers warn that OpenAI's resurgence could weigh on Anthropic's listing valuation.
The Next Battle: OpenAI's IPO Mandate Is Already in Sight
The contest for underwriting roles in Anthropic's IPO is merely a prelude to a larger rivalry. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are also vying for the mandate to lead OpenAI's IPO, which is expected to take place early next year.
The "lead left" seat represents not just substantial direct fees but also a strategic opportunity for banks to cultivate client relationships and market credibility in the AI sector. As a wave of AI companies prepares to go public, securing the top-tier target first will provide a decisive advantage in this protracted competition.
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