Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis: On April 2, analysis of gold market drivers: During Thursday's early Asian trading session, spot gold extended its gains. As of 07:31, it once reached a high of $4800.33 per ounce, the highest level since March 19, representing an increase of approximately 0.89%. Supported by a weaker US dollar and expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East, gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday (April 1). Spot gold touched a high of $4792 before finally settling at $4758 per ounce, up 1.9%. US gold futures surged even more significantly, gaining 2.9% to close at $4813.10. Market attention is currently focused on an upcoming national speech by former President Trump. The focus for the week will shift to Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls report for March, where economists forecast an addition of 60,000 jobs. A sharp deterioration in the labor market could reignite expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Previously, market expectations for rate cuts had been largely priced out due to the Iran conflict pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation concerns.
Gold Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, the pattern is clearly biased towards strength but shows signs of encountering resistance. On the daily chart, gold prices are oscillating higher along short-term moving averages. After finding support multiple times around the key level of $4680, prices have shown a stair-step progression higher. However, strong resistance is evident near the $4800 level. The MACD indicator continues to show red bars, indicating that bullish momentum persists but is showing signs of weakening as the bars gradually narrow. The RSI indicator is approaching overbought territory, suggesting limited upward momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with prices oscillating higher along the middle band. Resistance near the upper band around $4800 is significant, with prices repeatedly retreating after testing this level, failing to achieve a decisive breakout. The trading range is gradually narrowing, indicating intensified battle between bulls and bears. The 1-hour chart shows a weaker short-term structure, diverging from the overall consolidation-with-strength pattern. The price has broken below short-term moving average support, showing a slight downward bias. The MACD red bars are continuously shrinking and approaching the zero line, indicating bearish momentum is gradually being released. The RSI has fallen back to a neutral-to-weak range, lacking upward momentum. The Bollinger Bands are trending slightly lower, with the price trading below the middle band, suggesting short-term correction pressure. Caution is warranted for a potential further test of support levels. Overall, for today's short-term trading strategy in gold, the primary approach is to look for buying opportunities on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance above is focused in the $4850-$4900 range, while key short-term support below lies in the $4750-$4700 range.
Crude Oil Latest Market Trend Analysis: Analysis of crude oil market drivers: During early Asian trading on Thursday (Beijing time, April 2), oil prices fell by over 1%, trading around $98.25 per barrel. This follows comments from former US President Trump suggesting a swift end to the conflict with Iran. Oil prices closed lower on Wednesday after President Trump indicated the US would soon conclude its war with Iran. Brent crude futures fell 2.7% to $101.16 per barrel, after hitting an intraday low of $98.35. US crude futures declined about 1.2% to $100.12 per barrel, after touching an intraday low of $96.50. Meanwhile, OPEC's crude oil production in March fell by 7.5 million barrels per day due to strait closures. US crude inventories last week increased more than expected, and Saudi Arabia may raise its official selling price for Asian crude to a record level for May.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: From a technical standpoint, on the daily chart, oil prices remain within a high-level consolidation range. Prices have repeatedly encountered resistance near $108, indicating significant selling pressure above. Conversely, the $100 level constitutes a key support zone, reflecting defensive buying interest. Momentum indicators suggest that upward momentum has weakened somewhat but have not yet generated a clear trend reversal signal. On the 4-hour chart, the short-term structure appears weak within the consolidation. Prices are repeatedly testing support and resistance within the range. A decisive break below $100 could trigger technical stop-loss selling and accelerate the decline. Conversely, if geopolitical risks escalate again and push prices above $108, it could open the door for further upside. Overall, for today's trading strategy in crude oil, the primary approach is to look for buying opportunities on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance above is focused in the $103.0-$108.0 range, while key short-term support below lies in the $93.0-$88.0 range.
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