As of today, the 25th, 28 provinces across China have released their first half-year reports for the initial year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. The biggest news is not the ongoing competition between Guangdong and Jiangsu, but that Anhui has finally overtaken Hunan, historically breaking into the top ten nationally. This reshuffling of provincial economies, on the surface, reflects a change in numbers, but its core represents a complete shift in industrial logic. The half-year reports clearly show who is winning the transition from old to new growth drivers and who is still struggling in traditional sectors.
Guangdong vs. Jiangsu: Maintaining the Base vs. Pursuing Growth
Guangdong and Jiangsu consistently hold the top two positions, with economies large enough to rival many developed nations. In the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan," Guangdong, the long-standing economic leader, posted three impressive indicators for the first half of the year: a 4.5% growth rate, the highest for this period in three years; its half-year economic output surpassed the 7 trillion yuan mark for the first time; and it led the top ten in nominal GDP growth. Behind this success lies a stable foundation and a powerful new engine. Foreign trade is Guangdong's anchor. In the first half of the year, the province's imports and exports reached 5.49 trillion yuan, a 20.8% increase. Notably, this was the first time its half-year foreign trade volume exceeded 5 trillion yuan, with June's monthly figure historically surpassing 1 trillion yuan. Nationally, while not the fastest grower among the top ten, Guangdong accounted for 21.6% of the country's total foreign trade and contributed 25.6% of the national growth, ranking first in share, growth, and contribution. AI is the main engine driving Guangdong's export leadership. The province alone accounts for a quarter of the nation's AI core industry scale. Consequently, Guangdong is a clear beneficiary of the current AI cycle. Shenzhen's AI-related product imports and exports have exceeded one trillion yuan with over 50% growth; Guangzhou boasts South China's largest 12-inch wafer cluster and a comprehensive computing power industry system; Dongguan supplies half the world's AI glasses. In the first half of the year, Guangdong's computing hardware exports grew rapidly, with integrated circuit exports surging 61.4% to 266.7 billion yuan and computer and parts exports rising 14.6% to 246.12 billion yuan. AI is profoundly reshaping Guangdong's industrial structure. While Guangdong holds the top spot in total GDP, Jiangsu is mounting a strong challenge. In recent years, the annual GDP gap between Jiangsu and Guangdong has narrowed from 745.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 349.5 billion yuan in 2025. In the first half of this year, the gap remained tight, at less than 200 billion yuan. The gap was 188.1 billion yuan in the same period last year, compared to 189.375 billion yuan this year, a fluctuation of just over 1 billion yuan. This momentum comes from Jiangsu's solid manufacturing base, particularly in equipment manufacturing. The province's national-level advanced manufacturing clusters have grown to 14, covering all its "13 prefectures." On this strong manufacturing foundation, the added value of Jiangsu's equipment manufacturing industry grew 9.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing 76.5% to the growth of all industrial enterprises above a designated size. Within this, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector grew 15.9%; the instrumentation manufacturing sector grew 12.7%; and the railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing sector grew 11.0%. In this competitive landscape, Jiangsu continues to strongly challenge Guangdong's position as the nation's top economic province.
The Anhui-Hunan Swap: New Track Success vs. Old Engine Pain
The most significant change in ranking among the top ten provinces in the first half of the year occurred for the tenth spot. Anhui, with an output of 2.737 trillion yuan, surpassed Hunan's 2.703357 trillion yuan to enter the top ten. This follows Anhui's overtaking of Beijing in 2022, moving from 12th to 11th place nationally. However, this overtaking of Hunan to reach the top ten has been foreshadowed. In the first quarter of this year, Hunan's GDP growth rate was only 3.0%, ranking second-to-last nationally and last among the top ten provinces. In contrast, Anhui's growth rate was a strong 5.8%, narrowing the GDP gap between the two provinces to around 14 billion yuan. Now, with the half-year report, the rankings have completely changed. The core driver of this overtaking is industry—more precisely, new productive forces. Anhui's industrial added value growth rate for enterprises above a designated size reached an astonishing 12.4% in the first half of the year, a commanding lead among the top ten provinces, with second-placed Hubei at 8.9%. Specifically, Anhui's computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry surged 61.6%, and its automobile manufacturing industry grew by 29%. As the top province for automobile production, Anhui led the nation in both automobile output and exports in the first half of the year. In six months, the province produced 1.6867 million cars, exporting 1.006 million of them, generating export value of 104.36 billion yuan. Beyond automobiles, seeds planted by early "venture capital" moves, like ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), BOE Technology, and NIO, have now grown into major industries. From storage chips and new displays to new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, Anhui has formed two trillion-yuan industrial clusters: next-generation information technology and equipment manufacturing. The province has successfully transformed industrial trends into solid economic data. In the first half of the year, Anhui's foreign trade growth rate reached 34.3%, far outpacing other provinces in the top ten. After a decade of effort, Anhui has shed its "inconspicuous" label to become a hotbed for technology incubation. Conversely, among the top ten provinces, Hunan's first-half GDP growth was only 2.7%, still the lowest, and its social consumer goods retail sales growth was -1.2%, the only negative figure among the group. The official viewpoint forwarded by Hunan's Provincial Bureau of Statistics frankly explains the province's difficulties: the slowdown is not due to being "sick," but rather a "gear shift," where "old industries are declining, and new ones haven't fully taken over yet." On one hand, traditional advantageous industries in Hunan, such as construction machinery, rail transit, and tobacco, are undergoing deep adjustments. On the other hand, while emerging industries like next-generation information technology and intelligent instrumentation are growing rapidly, their scale is relatively small, limiting their driving effect. Turning an elephant takes time. However, Hunan is accelerating its pace of "nurturing new growth within the existing foundation." Leading companies in its traditional industries are proactively stepping out of their comfort zones to find a second growth curve. Sany Heavy Industry is comprehensively advancing its electrification transformation, with a large number of electric heavy trucks exported in bulk, securing the largest single order for such domestic products. Zoomlion Heavy Industry is leveraging decades of accumulated manufacturing process and scenario data from excavators to develop humanoid robots, which garnered significant attention at international industrial exhibitions. CSR Zhuzhou Institute is applying its mature high-speed rail electronic control technology to offshore wind power equipment, maintaining a leading position in the domestic industry. Hunan's economic "foundation" remains intact, but the transitional adjustments in its industrial structure will require more time.
Latest Signals: Long-term Logic and the Start of Reshuffling
Looking at the longer term, the changes in the rankings of the top ten provinces become clearer. In recent years, besides Anhui, Sichuan and Hubei have also made significant progress. Looking ahead, these two central and western provinces hold considerable promise. Sichuan's economic output had previously risen to fifth in the country. During the entire "14th Five-Year Plan" period, its average annual growth rate was 5.7%, its economic output crossed two trillion-yuan thresholds to exceed 6 trillion yuan, solidifying its position as the leading economy in the western region. However, future long-term opportunities could provide Sichuan with another leap forward. Why? Because amidst changing international situations and rapid industrial iteration, when the world turns its attention to energy security and AI computing power, Sichuan's strengths become apparent. In the first half of the year, the added value of the province's green and low-carbon advantageous industries grew by 9.9%, with the power battery and vanadium-titanium industries growing by 36.7% and 17.8%, respectively. Lithium battery production increased by 62.7%, hydro turbine generator sets by 31.2%, hydrogen production more than doubled, and solar power generation grew by 44.7%—all crucial capacities for future industries. This is just the beginning. As the logic "computing power follows electricity" becomes the new paradigm for the AI era, Sichuan serves as a natural computing power base. Going forward, Sichuan's opportunities will follow a long-term logic—green energy advantages may not be monetized quickly, and the westward migration of computing power requires a cycle. However, investment is already voting with its feet: in the first half of the year, investment in Sichuan's green and low-carbon advantageous industries grew by 14%, including a 17.5% increase in crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry investment and a 71% surge in power battery industry investment. These investments are likely to translate into future economic growth potential. Hubei, meanwhile, has staged a "V-shaped reversal" in recent years. Hit hard by the pandemic in 2020, it rebounded strongly on the back of its "optical, chip, screen, terminal, and network" industrial cluster. In the future, Hubei also represents a "long-term potential stock." This is because the more AI thrives, the more valuable computing power becomes; and the more valuable computing power becomes, the more valuable "light" (optics) becomes. In the first half of this year, the added value of Hubei's computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry surged by 63.8%, a direct reflection of this logic. Hubei now holds the world's largest R&D and production base for optical communications—Wuhan's "Optics Valley." From a single optical fiber to a brilliant beam of light, from a handful of small companies to over 16,000 optoelectronic information companies in Optics Valley... The world is chasing "light," and Hubei happens to be standing in it. The city of Wuhan alone supports half of the nation's optoelectronics industry. From optical chips to optical modules, from storage to transmission, Hubei's industrial chain is nearly complete. This is not explainable by a short-term trend—as AI moves from concept to infrastructure, "light" becomes the steel and concrete of the new infrastructure, and Hubei will inevitably become an indispensable link in this chain. As we look towards the "15th Five-Year Plan," industrial iteration is relentless, and the reshuffling of provincial economies will not stop. For provinces like Sichuan and Hubei, future growth follows a long-term logic. Long-term logic is never about winning or losing in a single quarter or city; it is about the fundamentals over five or ten years. Rankings are temporary, but industries are enduring. The first half-year data proves one thing: in today's China, there is no "permanent runner-up" or "immutable top ten." Whoever can continuously invest in new tracks will seize the initiative in the next round of reshuffling. The old growth model is receding, and a new industrial logic is unfolding—this major reshuffle has only just begun.
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