A significant development has emerged from the photovoltaic (PV) industry chain. On the afternoon of December 25, market sources indicated that four leading silicon wafer enterprises jointly implemented substantial price increases, quoting 1.4 yuan/piece for 183N wafers, 1.5 yuan/piece for 210RN wafers, and 1.7 yuan/piece for 210N wafers, averaging a 12% hike, which has been confirmed by personnel from multiple silicon wafer manufacturers. The industry widely believes that a significant upward revision in upstream polysilicon prices, with new mainstream orders exceeding 65,000 yuan/ton, is the core driver behind this price adjustment.
According to data from industry consultancy InfoLink, average silicon wafer prices across various models increased between 3.3% and 9.8% this week. The institution pointed out that, as most silicon wafer manufacturers anticipate further potential for price increases, their current willingness to ship is noticeably low, leading to a widespread market strategy of controlling supply. Overall, with self-discipline measures continuing to extend, silicon wafer prices may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term, excluding the possibility of further increases. InfoLink's data has not yet reflected the latest price adjustments made on December 25.
Furthermore, polysilicon, being the core raw material for silicon wafer production, directly dictates manufacturing costs through its price trajectory. Data shows that most polysilicon producers have now raised their new order quotes to above 65,000 yuan/ton, a surge of over 20% compared to previous actual transaction prices. Although the market is currently in a stalemate characterized by "quotes without actual deals," polysilicon companies exhibit an extremely strong determination to uphold these prices. From a cost structure perspective, polysilicon accounts for a hefty 48% of silicon wafer production costs, making it the most critical factor influencing silicon wafer pricing; significant fluctuations in upstream raw material prices directly impact the profit margins of silicon wafer enterprises.
This collective price hike by silicon wafer manufacturers is, in essence, an inevitable outcome of cost pressures being transmitted down the industry chain, as well as a proactive adjustment by these firms to cope with rising costs and restore profitability. Notably, this price increase is also underpinned by a dual support system of industry supply contraction and policy guidance. Since 2025, the PV industry's "anti-involution" process has continued to advance, with polysilicon producers voluntarily reducing output through self-discipline, leading to the first year-on-year decline in polysilicon production since 2013, with a 29.6% drop recorded from January to October.
Concurrently, a PV purchasing and storage platform jointly initiated by 10 leading companies, including Tongwei and GCL, has been formally established. This platform aims to guide industry prices back to reasonable levels through market-oriented mechanisms, providing policy-level support for the stabilization of polysilicon and silicon wafer prices. Under the combined effect of supply contraction and cost support, the bargaining power of silicon wafer enterprises has significantly strengthened, with some even adopting supply control strategies, further propelling the upward price trend.
Industry insiders noted that while this isn't the first price increase since the anti-involution campaign began, the joint action by the four silicon wafer giants, coupled with the substantial hike, demonstrates "industry self-discipline" during this process, representing a proactive move aimed specifically at improving the profitability of the silicon wafer segment. Regarding the PV industry chain, CICC released a report stating that, aided by anti-involution measures, the main PV industry chain is expected to gradually bottom out and even improve in the second half of 2025, but the slower improvement in financial statements delays market-driven consolidation, making the continued advancement of anti-involution imperative, with module price passthrough likely being key.
Although industry demand may experience a阶段性走弱 in 2026, supply-side anti-involution efforts and the alpha of leading companies are expected to help some firms return to profitability. Enhanced grid absorption capacity driven by energy storage installations could lead to a recovery in PV demand during the mid-to-late period of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Due to prominent PV curtailment issues, domestic power marketization and the development of adjustable power sources are being accelerated, with energy storage experiencing robust growth both domestically and internationally.
China Galaxy Securities released a report suggesting that previously introduced policies comprehensively address anti-involution from two angles: "standardizing pricing behavior" and "orderly phasing out backward capacity." As a key focus of China's "anti-involution" efforts, policy support or technological iteration in the PV industry is expected to accelerate supply-side consolidation. Polysilicon is leading the profitability repair, and the entire industry is anticipated to return to profitability in 2026, with a potential turnaround visible by Q2 2026.
Related concept stocks: GCL TECH (03800): In December, Bank of Communications International issued a report expressing optimism about GCL TECH's significant granular silicon profitability advantages and its low power consumption aligning with policy direction. The industry's "anti-involution" is driving a sharp rise in polysilicon prices, and the potential implementation of capacity purchasing and storage could push prices even higher, with a target price of HKD 1.54. The bank assigned an Outperform rating to the mainland new energy and utilities sector. Following a policy-driven installation rush in the first half of 2025, the bank expects the peak installation season for wind/PV in mainland China for the full year to be milder than usual but maintains its forecast for total annual installations to reach a record high.
Tcl Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (002129.SZ): A leader in large-size silicon wafers with a high proportion of N-type products, possessing strong capabilities in capacity utilization rate control and price transmission, potentially among the first to benefit from the price increases. GOLDENSOLAR (01121): Public information shows that in September 2024, GOLDENSOLAR established a joint venture with Juneng Electric and LONGi Green Energy Technology to upgrade four of LONGi's PERC production lines at the Xi'an Aerospace Base to HBC production lines. Furthermore, GOLDENSOLAR disclosed in an April 2025 announcement that Fujian Jinshi and Yiwu JA Solar plan to establish a joint venture to upgrade 4GW of PERC capacity to HBC capacity, for which GOLDENSOLAR will provide the HBC cell patent technology usage rights.
XINTE ENERGY (01799): Xinte Energy announced that on September 12, 2025, the Company, an inspection company, Tianchi Energy, and the target company, Xinjiang Silicon-based New Materials Innovation Center Co., Ltd., entered into a capital increase agreement. According to the agreement, Tianchi Energy agreed to contribute RMB 35 million in monetary funds as registered capital to the target company. Following the capital increase, the Group and Tianchi Energy will hold approximately 61% and 39% equity interests in the target company, respectively, and the target company will continue to be a subsidiary of the Company, with its financial statements consolidated into the Group's consolidated financial statements.
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