China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that quantum technology, based on the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics and leveraging properties such as quantum superposition, entanglement, and no-cloning, is primarily applied in three major fields: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement. As a frontier direction in the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, quantum technology represents a major innovation area with disruptive potential for traditional information technology systems and has become a strategic high ground in global technological competition and industrial layout. Currently, quantum technology is in a critical transition phase from scientific breakthroughs to industrial exploration, expected to accelerate the development of new drivers for future industries. The main viewpoints of China Merchants Securities are as follows:
Policy and capital are dual drivers, continuously strengthening industrial development support. The strategic positioning of quantum technology in China has been consistently elevated, from launching major scientific projects during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to listing quantum technology as the top priority among six future industries in the "15th Five-Year Plan," with the policy framework gradually maturing. Globally, a pattern of intensive capital investment has formed, with over 30 countries cumulatively investing more than $35 billion; the European Union has invested over €11 billion in the past five years, and the U.S. government plans to invest $1 billion in 2025. As national leaders in the information and communication sector, the three major telecom operators are leveraging their cloud-network capabilities, customer base, and industrial chain strengths to advance in quantum technology: China Telecom injected 3 billion yuan to establish China Telecom Quantum Group and took a controlling stake in QuantumCTek; China Mobile invested in seven quantum technology enterprises including HuaYi Quantum, Boson Quantum, Xintong Quantum, Guoke Quantum, Origin Quantum, Turing Quantum, and Zhongwei Daxin; China Unicom focuses on technological innovation and infrastructure construction—the three parties are collaboratively leading the high-quality development of China's quantum technology industry.
Technological breakthroughs continue in the three major fields, with industrialization accelerating. Quantum communication, relying on Quantum Key Distribution technology, has taken the lead in achieving large-scale commercial use, becoming the segment with the highest level of industrialization currently; quantum computing is in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum stage, with multiple hardware technology pathways developing in parallel, and key technologies such as quantum error correction making continuous progress; the civilian application of quantum precision measurement is accelerating, with products like microwave atomic clocks and quantum magnetometers gradually entering the commercial application phase.
The global competitive landscape is intensifying, with strategic value becoming increasingly prominent. As a core track in technological competition, major economies have incorporated quantum technology into their key development directions, with China, the U.S., and Europe forming a competitive investment landscape, focusing on core areas such as quantum chips and quantum error correction technologies. China's quantum technology has achieved a historical leap from following, keeping pace, to leading in certain aspects: quantum communication research maintains an internationally leading position, quantum computing research is established in the top international tier, and quantum precision measurement ranks among the global forefront in several directions.
Application scenarios continue to expand, with industry market potential gradually unfolding. Against the backdrop of increasing information security demands, the application of quantum communication in high-security sectors such as finance, government affairs, and data centers is gradually growing; quantum precision measurement shows broad application prospects in areas like navigation and positioning, earth exploration, and medical devices; quantum computing is expected to play a significant role in fields such as material design and drug development in the future. As downstream demand is released and the industrial ecosystem continues to improve, the quantum technology industry is expected to enter a phase of accelerated application expansion.
Risk warnings include: risks related to changes in the macroeconomic environment, uncertainties in technology R&D and pathway evolution, risks of commercial application implementation and value realization taking longer than expected, risks of an immature industrial ecosystem and fragile supply chains, global competition and geopolitical risks, and risks associated with increased capital investment and ongoing financing needs.
Comments