Morgan Stanley has issued a research report in which it increased its profit forecasts for SITC (01308) for 2025 to 2027 by 8%, 14%, and 13%, respectively, incorporating assumptions of higher freight rates. The price-to-earnings multiples used for scenario valuation remain unchanged. However, due to recent container freight rate increases driven by geopolitical tensions, the weighting for the optimistic scenario valuation has been raised from 15% to 20%, while the weighting for the pessimistic scenario has been reduced from 15% to 10%. The target price has been raised from HK$26.4 to HK$30.1, with an "In-Line" rating maintained. The bank retains its baseline view that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East appear to benefit the container shipping market in the near term, but oversupply is likely to continue pressuring the industry cycle over the next one to two years. If oil supply disruptions persist, Southeast Asian economies may face macroeconomic headwinds. SITC's exposure to the Japanese market also carries risks due to uncertainties in Sino-Japanese trade.
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