On the eve of the Spring Festival, the wholesale price trend of Feitian Moutai once again experienced a rollercoaster ride. Around early February, the market's wholesale price saw sharp fluctuations: last week, the liquor price surged by 150 yuan per bottle in just two days, only to drop by 160 yuan per bottle over a single weekend, before rebounding again today to exceed 1600 yuan. This unusual volatility not only reflects the sensitivity of channel sentiment but also directs market attention towards the digital hub "iMoutai," which is profoundly reshaping the Moutai ecosystem.
Recently, iMoutai disclosed its operational performance for January 2026: it added 6.28 million new users, achieved a monthly active user base exceeding 15.31 million, processed over 2.12 million transaction orders, with orders for the Feitian 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. liquor surpassing 1.43 million. With the release of this data, some of the confusion previously hanging over the market is becoming increasingly clear.
The first question: How much revenue has iMoutai generated? Using a conservative estimate of an average of 4 bottles per standard Moutai order, iMoutai's incremental supply in January may have approached 2,700 tons. Calculated at the single-bottle price of 1499 yuan, this translates to a revenue scale of approximately 8 billion yuan. Combined with contributions from non-standard products like Zodiac wines and premium wines, iMoutai's total revenue for January is estimated to exceed 10 billion yuan.
Furthermore, the supply trajectory on iMoutai throughout January likely became progressively steeper. In the first three days of January, the platform had only 100,000 transacting users; by January 9th, the cumulative number over nine days reached 400,000. Considering the data of over 1.45 million consumers transacting for the entire month, the average daily transacting users in the mid-to-late period might have reached 78,000.
Comparing this to Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s annual production capacity of approximately 50,000 tons and a market supply of about 100 million bottles, iMoutai's monthly transaction volume of 2.12 million orders signifies an annualized processing capability capable of covering around 24 million bottles. This level of penetration declares that iMoutai has officially moved beyond the digital experimentation phase, ascending to become a core direct sales engine supporting Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s earnings flexibility.
The second question: Are traditional channels being "impacted"? From a traditional perspective, such a large-scale direct sales volume is often seen as eroding channel profits. However, based on market feedback from January, this concern is being replaced by a new "symbiotic logic." Data obtained from channels by Wang Xuewei, a partner at Siyuan Hengyue, shows that the recent wholesale price for a case of Feitian Moutai is between 1600-1630 yuan, up about 60 yuan month-on-month.
"Currently, about 25% of the Spring Festival 'good start' payments have been completed, with most distributors having received shipments and reporting positive growth in sell-through, some even showing double-digit growth," he noted. The reason lies in the fact that while the 1499 yuan direct sales objectively compress the traditional price spread, iMoutai actually plays a role in driving traffic to offline physical stores.
Additionally, as the reforms have eliminated the impact of forced bundling with non-standard products, channel distributors generally hold a relatively positive attitude towards the current marketization process.
The third question: Has real "demand" materialized? The recent wide fluctuations in wholesale prices are essentially a fierce clash between bullish and bearish sentiments during the Spring Festival window. However, against a backdrop where the supply of standard Feitian has increased slightly year-on-year and the shipping pace is faster than in previous years, the price's ability to rebound quickly and stabilize might be sufficient evidence that demand is better than expected.
Ouyang Yu, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, pointed out in a research report that, combined with channel feedback, pre-holiday distributor shipments of Feitian were nearly 33% complete, faster than the 30% last year. Considering that iMoutai has absorbed part of the direct Feitian sales, Feitian sales during the Spring Festival are expected to increase by about 30% year-on-year.
Wang Xuewei further analyzed that the 2026 Spring Festival benefits from multiple structural tailwinds: first, the calendar effect, as this year's Spring Festival occurs later, and the holiday is extended, allowing for a more ample sales preparation period; second, optimized inventory structure, where although distributors still hold some inventory, retail terminal inventory remains at relatively low levels due to the impact of anti-corruption related policies in 2025.
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