What are the patterns of A-share bull market trends? Multiple typical bull cycles in the A-share market have consistently followed the common rule of "alternating phases of rising and consolidation segments, with long-term declining phases being extremely rare." Reviewing several classic bull cycles reveals that the "rise-consolidation" alternation is the core rhythm throughout the entire bull market. Consolidation phases play a critical role in absorbing profit-taking pressure and accumulating upward momentum, while prolonged downtrends are exceptionally uncommon. Different types of bull markets exhibit variations in the number of segments; a comprehensive bull market typically features "3 consolidation segments + 4 rising segments," whereas a structural bull market consists of "2 consolidation segments + 3 rising segments."
What are the characteristic differences in the second consolidation segment across various types of historical bull markets? Historically, the second consolidation segment in comprehensive bull markets and structural bull markets shows significant differences in correction magnitude, duration, market style, and activity levels. Since September 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index has formed 2 complete rising segments and 2 consolidation segments, and it is currently at a critical juncture transitioning from the end of the second consolidation segment to the beginning of the third. Historically, comprehensive bull markets are characterized by "large corrections and short durations," with a style shift from high-priced to low-priced stocks and increased market activity. In contrast, structural bull markets display "small corrections and long durations," with a "winner-takes-all" style and declining activity.
How is a breakout from a consolidation segment to a rising segment confirmed in a bull market? Confirming a breakout from Consolidation Segment 2 to Rising Segment 3 requires dual validation from both technical patterns and policy events. Technically, a valid breakout above the upper boundary of Consolidation Segment 2 is needed; structural bull markets may also be accompanied by auxiliary signals like a "bald yang line" (a bullish candlestick with no upper shadow). On the policy front, a concentration of favorable policies or events is necessary, as historical breakouts in multiple bull markets have relied on such catalysts. When these two forces align, a breakout can be confirmed, providing a reliable basis for judging the trend shift.
Which type of bull market does the current cycle more closely resemble? The current bull market aligns more closely with the attributes of a structural bull market. The second consolidation segment of this cycle exhibits characteristics of "small correction magnitude and long duration," which significantly differs from a comprehensive bull market but closely matches historical structural bull markets. In terms of style, the market during this second consolidation phase has shown a "winner-takes-all" pattern, consistent with historical structural bull markets. Furthermore, the magnitude and duration of the second rising segment in this cycle also fit the profile of a structural bull market, while deviating relatively more from that of a comprehensive bull market.
Has the current bull market already broken out of the second consolidation segment? The current bull market may have already broken out of the second consolidation segment and entered Rising Segment 3. Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index has effectively broken above the upper boundary of Consolidation Segment 2, and it closed with a "bald yang line" on January 6, 2026, matching the signal seen during breakouts in historical structural bull markets. Following the breakout, the market has risen steadily for multiple days with active trading, suggesting sufficient bullish momentum and sustainability beyond a mere pulse rebound. Around the time of the index breaking above the second consolidation segment, macro policies conveyed positive signals, and favorable developments resonated in industrial sectors such as brain-computer interfaces and commercial aerospace. Therefore, the convergence of technical signals, market performance, policy support, and industrial tailwinds forms a multi-dimensional force, indicating that the current bull market has likely broken out of the second consolidation segment and entered Rising Segment 3.
How might the current bull market evolve based on historical patterns? In the early phase of Rising Segment 3, the current bull market might form a阶段性高点 (stage high) around the 4200-4300 point range, followed by a correction that stabilizes near the upper boundary of Consolidation Segment 2 before initiating a new round of上涨 (rise). Historically, after breaking out of Consolidation Segment 2 in a structural bull market, the initial high of Rising Segment 3 is approximately 5% above the upper boundary of Consolidation Segment 2 and about 14.5% above its lower boundary. Referencing this pattern from historical structural bull markets, the initial phase of the current Rising Segment 3 could see a stage high form around 4200-4300 points. After this high appears, the market typically experiences a correction, with the correction low likely stabilizing near the upper boundary of Consolidation Segment 2. This upper boundary, being the key breakout level, serves as both a crucial technical support and a consensus point for the market's trend shift, offering strong capital absorption and psychological support. Consequently, close attention should be paid to two key aspects: first, the release of pressure and capital absorption within the 4200-4300 point range; second, the effectiveness of support at the upper boundary of Consolidation Segment 2 and stabilization signals from core sectors. Once support is confirmed, the market is expected to resume its upward trend driven by momentum in core sectors, continuing the structural bull market.
Risk Analysis: 1. Bull market phase classification may be inaccurate; 2. Historical patterns may fail to apply; 3. Policy implementation may proceed slower than expected; 4. Market sentiment may significantly decline; 5. Fluctuations in Sino-US relations may suppress market risk appetite; 6. Geopolitical conflicts may intensify.
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