末日博士鲁比尼的“崩溃警告”：全球正走向金融、经济和债务危机的交汇点

华尔街见闻2022-12-08

经过多年极端宽松的财政、货币和信贷政策以及严重的负供给冲击，滞胀压力对庞大的公共和私营部门债务造成挤压。经济危机迫在眉睫，决策者却无力应对。上周，纽约大学教授、有“末日博士”之称的经济学家鲁比尼发出“崩溃警告”，其在最新的一篇专栏文章中指出：随着数十年的赤字、借贷和杠杆率激增，世界经济正走向前所未有的经济危机、金融危机和债务危机的交汇点。鲁比尼指出，在私营部门，债务堆积如山，包括家庭（如质押贷款、...

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钱来钱往
2022-12-09
钱来钱往
寄生蟲，唯恐天下不亂
是龙不是虫
2022-12-08
是龙不是虫
k
- HCBICE:
  [财迷]
- 是龙不是虫:
  k

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crises","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8d6eb8318704dc50d94e3ca94caf3d","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"经过多年极端宽松的财政、货币和信贷政策以及严重的负供给冲击，滞胀压力对庞大的公共和私营部门债务造成挤压。经济危机迫在眉睫，决策者却无力应对。上周，纽约大学教授、有“末日博士”之称的经济学家鲁比尼发出“崩溃警告”，其在最新的一篇专栏文章中指出：随着数十年的赤字、借贷和杠杆率激增，世界经济正走向前所未有的经济危机、金融危机和债务危机的交汇点。鲁比尼指出，在私营部门，债务堆积如山，包括家庭（如质押贷款、信用卡、汽车贷款、学生贷款、个人贷款）、企业和公司（银行贷款、债券债务和私人债务）以及金融部门的债务（银行和非银行机构的负债）等；在公共部门，包括联邦、州和地方政府债券和其他正式债务，以及隐性债务，如现收现付养老金计划和医疗保健系统等无资金来源的负债—所有这些都将随着社会老龄化而继续增长。以下是鲁比尼的主要观点：单看显性债务，数字就很惊人了。从全球来看，私人和公共部门债务占GDP的比例从1999年的200%上升到2021年的350%。发达经济体的这一比例目前为420%，中国为330%。在美国，这一比例为420%，高于大萧条时期和二战后。当然，如果借款人投资新资本（机器、住房、公共基础设施），从而获得高于借贷成本的回报，那么债务可以促进经济活动。但大量借贷只是为了持续地为高于个人收入的消费支出提供资金——这就是破产的“最佳方案”。此外，对资本的投资也可能存在风险，无论借款人是以人为抬高的价格购买房屋的家庭，还是不顾回报、寻求快速扩张的公司，亦或是将钱花在“白象”（奢侈但无用的基础设施项目）上的政府。由于各种原因，这种过度借贷现象已经持续了几十年。金融的民主化使收入紧张的家庭能够通过债务获取消费的资金。偏右翼政府一直在减税，但同时并没有削减开支，而偏左翼政府则在社会项目上慷慨解囊，但这些项目没有通过足够高的税收获得充足的资金。在央行超宽松的货币和信贷政策的推动下，有利于债务而非股权的税收政策推动私人和公共部门借贷激增。多年的量化宽松（QE）和信贷宽松使借贷成本接近于零，在某些情况下甚至是负数（就像欧洲和日本的情况）。到2020年，收益率为负的美元公共债务为17万亿美元，在一些北欧国家，甚至抵押贷款的名义利率也为负。不可持续的债务比率爆炸式增长意味着许多借款人——家庭、公司、银行、影子银行、政府，甚至整个国家——都是资不抵债的“僵尸”，这些“僵尸”靠着低利率支撑着（使偿债成本保持在可控范围）。在2008年全球金融危机和新冠疫情期间，零利率或负利率政策、量化宽松和财政刺激政策拯救了许多本来会破产的人。但现在，同样由超宽松财政、货币和信贷政策助长的通货膨胀已经结束了这场金融“亡灵黎明”，随着各国央行被迫提高利率以恢复价格稳定，“僵尸”的偿债成本急剧上升。对许多人来说，这带来了三重打击，通货膨胀侵蚀了家庭实际收入，降低家庭资产价值，如住房和股票。脆弱和过度杠杆化的公司、金融机构和政府也是如此：他们同时也面临借贷成本急剧上升、收入及资产价值下降。更糟糕的是，这一趋势恰逢滞胀回归。发达经济体上一次经历这种情况是在20世纪70年代。但至少在那时，债务比率很低。今天，我们面临着20世纪70年代最糟糕的一面（滞胀冲击）和全球金融危机的最糟糕的一面（债务冲击）。这一次，我们不能简单地通过降息来刺激需求。毕竟，全球经济正受到持续的短期和中期负面供应冲击，这些冲击降低了增长，增加了价格和生产成本。其中包括：疫情对劳动力和货物供应链中断；俄乌冲突对大宗商品价格的影响；以及其他十多个中期冲击—从气候变化到地缘政治发展，将带来额外的滞胀压力。与2008年金融危机和新冠疫情爆发前几个月不同，仅仅通过宽松的宏观政策救助私人和公共机构，将给通胀火上浇油。这意味着，在严重的金融危机之上，将出现一场硬着陆——严重、持久的衰退。随着资产泡沫破裂，偿债比率飙升以及家庭、企业和政府的经通胀调整后的收入下降，经济危机和金融崩溃将相互影响。可以肯定的是，以本币借款的发达经济体可以利用一轮意外的通胀来降低一些名义长期固定利率债务的实际价值。由于各国政府不愿提高税收或削减开支以减少赤字，央行的赤字货币化将再次被视为阻力最小的路径。但你不能一直愚弄所有的人。一旦通胀精灵从瓶子中释放—当各国央行面对迫在眉睫的经济和金融危机而放弃对抗时，名义和实际借贷成本将激增。所有滞胀性债务危机可以被推迟，但将不可避免。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9920553862,"gmtCreate":1670525024157,"gmtModify":1676538385792,"author":{"id":"4103313195801410","authorId":"4103313195801410","name":"钱来钱往","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4ce070590cdc57fe64515087b6477ff7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4103313195801410","authorIdStr":"4103313195801410"},"htmlText":"寄生蟲，唯恐天下不亂","listText":"寄生蟲，唯恐天下不亂","text":"寄生蟲，唯恐天下不亂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920553862","repostId":1140737202,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9920251550,"gmtCreate":1670509170570,"gmtModify":1676538382440,"author":{"id":"3582761146933339","authorId":"3582761146933339","name":"是龙不是虫","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/88c6c9008bca5a73fbaab442050a9ab3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b75ce0c34afff716602792a5d0929dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582761146933339","authorIdStr":"3582761146933339"},"htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920251550","repostId":1140737202,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105125157,"gmtCreate":1670515489578,"gmtModify":1670515503044,"authorId":3568697814695599,"author":{"id":3568697814695599,"idStr":"3568697814695599","authorId":3568697814695599,"name":"HCBICE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4851c4a27e84de19dd126ece72f2e29","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9920251550,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","html":"[财迷]"},{"id":105123729,"gmtCreate":1670509175748,"gmtModify":1670509188510,"authorId":3582761146933339,"author":{"id":3582761146933339,"idStr":"3582761146933339","authorId":3582761146933339,"name":"是龙不是虫","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/88c6c9008bca5a73fbaab442050a9ab3","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite 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