如何看待当下市场？一场剧烈的“范式转变”

华尔街见闻2022-03-15

世界正在进行一场从全球化转向区域化的“范式转变”。如果这个判断是正确的，那么它可能带来的后果是：更脆弱的市场、更高的波动性、更低的流动性。该如何理解当下这个2020年3月以来最不稳定、最混乱的市场？近日，高盛的对冲基金全球负责人Tony Pasqsuariello对其给出了一个精彩的总结：一场剧烈的“范式转变”。在其最新的市场笔记中，这位经验老道的专业投资者将市场描述为“以史诗级的高波动率和高风险...

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Comments

北纬1度线
2022-03-16
北纬1度线
不懂
神话者
2022-03-16
神话者
[微笑]
富川
2022-03-16
富川
[強]
Youn7276
2022-03-16
Youn7276
Ok
谷岳HZ
2022-03-16
谷岳HZ
nice
BP小林
2022-03-15
BP小林
[財迷]

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市场面临严峻考验如果在去年6月问你，如果2022年3月我们面临着110美元/桶的原油、8%的通胀率以及地缘政治冲突，你是否会猜测标普500指数仍会保持在4200点，同时纳斯达克指数还较2020年3月低点反弹了近100%？诚然，这么做有投机取巧的成分，因为这种方法忽略了21H2估值的上涨，但值得注意的是，标普500指数并不代表着单一股票受损的深度以及受损覆盖的广度。举例来说，请看看现在美国的实际利率有多疯狂。此外，当下我们面临的一些列经济问题要比股市严峻的多，这也是我为何不赞同现在就将俄罗斯从全球金融体系剔除的原因之一。3. 回撤幅度“受人瞩目”，关注信用债市场在经济没有走向衰退的情况下，标普10%-20%的回撤在历史上都是非常“受人瞩目”的。同时，我发现我开始更多地担心下行风险的累积。我再次承认，这更像是一种本能，而非任何复杂的东西。或许我们都应该开始密切关注融资市场。如果有“重要信号”发出的话，信用债市场可能是最值得跟踪的市场之一。值得一提的是，虽然相较于世界上大多数股票市场，标普似乎在最近的一段时间中提供了“避风港”的地位。但这样说也会遭来很多人的质疑：我们正迫使越来越多的资本“抱团”，进入一小部分最优质的美国公司（如微软、苹果等）。虽然我真诚地认为这样做相对来说是正确的，但需要注意的是：赌注正在提高。另一边，不需要我提及，你已经知道过去几周大宗商品领域出现了一系列非同寻常的反弹。严谨点说，过去两个月中，我们刚刚见证了大宗商品指数自1970年代以来的最大反弹。4. “范式转变”我认为现在所有人都可以清楚地看到趋势，它只是被地缘政治的紧张局势所放大了。可以这么说，世界正在进行一场从全球化转向区域化的“范式转变”。我们正目睹一场从1989年柏林墙倒塌到2016年英国脱欧公投期间以来世界“底片”的转换。那么，一些肤浅的想法随之而来。不过如果你愿意，可以尽情地朝我扔西红柿。它推动商品消费增加，并肯定了潜在的“超级周期”；它推动西方的权力和国防综合体进行重大重组；它最终会引领各国增加在替代能源（清洁能源等）上扩大投资，不过不是当务之急；它极有可能推高通货膨胀、工资水平并降低企业效率；它主张对技术进行更多投资，不过似乎又具有“两面性”，甚至可能推动发达国家和新兴市场的割裂。如果关于区域化这个论点，在大方向上或多或少是正确的，那么它可能带来的后果是：更脆弱的市场、更高的波动性、更低的流动性。不过，我不认为这会是一个“持续存在的主题”。不仅如此，我还认为，对于优秀的基金管理者以及投资组合来说，长期来看机遇是大于风险的。5. 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