Sealand Securities has released a research report, forecasting that MOBVISTA (ASX: 01860) will achieve revenues of $2.727 billion, $3.835 billion, and $4.972 billion for the years 2026 through 2028. The corresponding net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $128 million, $245 million, and $386 million, with P/E ratios of 22x, 11x, and 7x, respectively. Adjusted net profit is estimated at $141 million, $263 million, and $425 million. As a leading global programmatic advertising platform, the company's intelligent bidding strategy is poised to capture incremental budgets from mid-core to hardcore game and non-game advertisers, suggesting sustained growth potential. Consequently, the 'Buy' rating is maintained. The key points from Sealand Securities are outlined below.
Revenue and Profitability Overview
First-quarter 2026 revenue reached $581 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.2% and a sequential rise of 0.73%. Revenue from gaming clients was a significant driver, contributing $431 million, up 40.8% year-on-year. Non-gaming client revenue amounted to $129 million, growing 12.43% year-on-year, though this segment experienced a relatively pronounced seasonal decline in e-commerce categories. This was partly attributed to the company's strategic resource focus on its new AI infrastructure platform. The company's Take Rate for Q1 2026 stood at 26.0%, a sequential increase of 0.57 percentage points, while the gross margin remained stable at 21.0%.
Efficient Cost Management
Selling expenses for Q1 2026 were $23.11 million, a 33.7% year-on-year increase primarily due to higher bidding fees associated with expanded business scale. The selling expense ratio was 3.98%, slightly up by 0.04 percentage points year-on-year. General and administrative expenses totaled $18.78 million, up 16.4% year-on-year, with a G&A expense ratio of 3.23%, mainly due to increased share-based compensation expenses. Research and development expenses were $61.97 million, surging 46.9% year-on-year, resulting in an R&D expense ratio of 10.66%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. This increase was driven by costs related to the development, training, testing, and performance optimization of the new platform. The operating profit margin for the quarter was 3.85%. Adjusted net profit was $24.21 million, representing a 10.6% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.17%.
AI Infrastructure and Product Roadmap
The core R&D focus in Q1 2026 was on the new AI infrastructure and the MaxAgent multi-agent system. The company's next-generation AI infrastructure system has completed its primary development, with observed improvements in R&D efficiency and model prediction accuracy. Following testing, phased rollout, and stability verification in Q3, a full launch is anticipated in October. The IAP ROAS model, underpinned by this new infrastructure, is expected to demonstrate its business impact in Q4 2026. Furthermore, the MarTech product line is undergoing an agent-based reconstruction and is projected to enter a new commercialization phase in Q4 2026, with technological dividends expected to be steadily released.
Strategic Developments and Confidence
On May 26, the company officially announced the introduction of Temasek Holdings, a Singapore-based strategic investor, which invested $150 million. This investment represents 5.7% of the issued voting shares, with an average purchase price of HK$12.99. This move facilitates an orderly exit for some early investors while successfully attracting high-quality, long-term investors like Temasek and other institutional funds. In March 2026, the company launched a share incentive plan with clear performance and market capitalization targets, primarily aimed at incentivizing the CEO, core product R&D, and management teams. This plan is expected to strengthen the alignment of interests between the business teams and the listed company, effectively motivating product and technology teams to drive revenue and profit growth, underscoring management's confidence in the company's medium- to long-term development.
Key Risk Factors
Potential risks include advertiser budget allocation falling short of expectations, uncertainties in the progress of AI advertising models, industry competition, data privacy and protection policy risks, and potential shortcomings in expense control.
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