According to Zhitong Financial APP, on the previous trading day (October 29), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 3,651.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.92% to 11,138.20 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.45% to 2,517.59 points; total turnover across the two markets reached 1,975.881 billion yuan; across the entire market, 781 stocks advanced, 4,728 declined, 68 were flat, 36 hit the daily limit up, and 3 hit the daily limit down.
Guotai Haitong Securities believes the October rate meeting constitutes a short-term "hawkish pause," with a 25BP hike still highly likely in December; Guojin Securities believes that the Q3 consensus among active equity funds has already loosened, and ETFs remain the primary supporting force; CITIC Securities believes that CDS spreads for U.S. AI companies are pricing financing risk rather than survival risk, and default is not the baseline scenario; Huayuan Securities believes that the release of Genie 4 drives world model iteration, accelerating the release of demand for physical data.
Guotai Haitong: Fed's "Hawkish Pause" — Rate Hikes May Continue Within the Year
The October rate meeting maintained the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4%, but the resolution passed with a 10:2 vote, with two officials dissenting, and Warsh avoided throughout any discussion of whether the current rate level is sufficient, steering clear of forward guidance. Five marginal changes emerged from the meeting: the description of the economy shifted from "modest expansion" to "strong expansion"; the 2% PCE inflation target was reaffirmed, with emphasis that inflation remains elevated; meeting system reforms were advanced, with the FOMC still holding 8 meetings per year starting in autumn 2027, one of which will discuss monetary policy strategy without voting, while starting in 2028 strategic meetings will increase to 2 and rate decision meetings will decrease to 6; and the Fed's independence was emphasized, ruling out political influences such as midterm elections. The institution judges this as a short-term "hawkish pause": the pause stems from financial conditions having already tightened, employment data having somewhat declined, and energy prices needing to remain flexible; however, a 25BP hike remains highly likely in December, because on one hand the December hike expectation in the federal funds rate futures market has already reached around 80%, and on the other hand the impact of energy and AI demand on inflation shows no signs of reversing. In 2027, if geopolitics ease and a divided government forms after the midterm elections, a turning point for liquidity reversal may arrive, at which point U.S. Treasuries and U.S. tech stocks would be favored.
Guojin Securities: Active Equity Fund Q3 Consensus Loosens; Active Funds with Higher Exposure to High Profitability/Dividends/Low Valuation Gain More Favor
1. Reversal after extreme divergence among active equity-biased funds: active funds with higher exposure to high profitability/dividends/low valuation have gained more favor. 2. 2026Q3 active equity funds: the consensus has already loosened. 3. "Fixed income plus" funds: still receiving incremental capital inflows, mainly adding exposure to resource commodities and defense. 4. Since October 2026, the market has once again undergone "deleveraging," with ETFs remaining the primary supporting force.
CITIC Securities: Rising CDS Spreads for U.S. AI Companies Price Financing Risk; Default Is Not the Baseline Scenario
Since 2026, CDS spreads for U.S. AI and technology companies have generally risen, pricing financing risk rather than survival risk, and market concerns about debt-servicing capacity have already been reflected in financial statements. CDS spreads for leveraged buildout entities such as CoreWeave and Oracle have hit or approached records, while spreads for entities with well-maintained cash flows have barely moved, and the industry is diverging based on the multiple by which cash flow covers capital expenditure. The institution believes the current spread pricing is tiered and localized, and default is not the baseline scenario. This round of widening is driven by increased bond issuance and capital expenditure expansion, and the prerequisite for convergence is that capital expenditure growth returns toward revenue growth, with the exit mechanism needing to be generated through cash flow realization; in terms of allocation, holding in tiers based on premium and verifying quarter by quarter with cash flow is preferable to judging whether the bubble rises or falls.
Huayuan Securities: Google Releases Genie 4 — Pay Attention to Major Players' Supply Chains
On October 27 local time, Google DeepMind released its new-generation world model Genie 4, with core upgrades including real-time interaction, physical simulation, native audio, deep integration with Gemini, and robot training. The institution believes that world models are still in an early stage of development, with bottlenecks remaining in complex physical interaction, long-term temporal consistency, and spatial accuracy; however, as leading manufacturers such as Google and ByteDance continue to increase investment, the demand for real physical world data in model training is expected to continue growing, especially Ego first-person perspective, 4D spatial, and simulated synthetic data that carry action, spatial, and physical interaction information, and the physical AI data industry chain is expected to become an important beneficiary of world model iteration.
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