Multiple factors, including an AI-driven storage super cycle and expectations for an inaugural dividend, have propelled Kioxia Holdings to the top of Japanese stock trading volume rankings.
On April 8th and 9th, the trading volume for Kioxia Holdings on the Tokyo stock exchange surpassed one trillion yen for two consecutive days, recording 1.3596 trillion yen and 1.2867 trillion yen respectively. This marks the first time an individual stock on the Japanese market has achieved this. The trading volume on the 9th was approximately 7.7 times that of SoftBank Group, which recorded only 167.7 billion yen that day.
Two core catalysts are driving the surge in trading volume: first, the widespread adoption of AI is leading to persistently tight supply and demand for NAND flash memory chips; second, the company has signaled its intention to pay its first dividend following its initial public offering. Concurrently, short positions are rapidly accumulating, and the divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments is intensifying stock price volatility, further amplifying the trading volume.
Kioxia's share price reached a new intraday high on the 9th, bringing its year-to-date gain to 2.6 times. Since the beginning of 2025, the stock has surged a cumulative 6.3 times. Today, the company's shares rose over 7% again in Tokyo trading.
The dividend signal represents a shift from "negative retained earnings" towards a policy of "stable dividend payments." Kioxia's Senior Vice President in charge of finance, Yoshihiko Kawamura, told media on April 8th, "If I had to choose between share buybacks and dividends, I would lean towards dividends. We are discussing guidelines for stable dividend payments."
The company plans to formally outline its mid-to-long-term capital allocation policy, including investments and shareholder returns, at an investor meeting in June. This statement comes against a backdrop of dramatically improved performance. Kioxia's financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, released in February, project a net profit between 459.7 billion yen and 519.7 billion yen for the full year ending March 31st. The contribution from just the first three months of this calendar year is expected to be 310 billion to 370 billion yen. Analyst consensus estimates from QUICK further indicate that Kioxia's consolidated net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2027 could reach 2.4105 trillion yen, representing a four to five-fold increase from current levels.
It is noteworthy that Kioxia's consolidated retained earnings remained negative at 42.7 billion yen as of the end of December 2025—this was the direct reason it could not pay dividends previously. With profits surging, expectations are rising that retained earnings will turn positive, forming the financial foundation for dividend payments.
On the supply and demand front, the market is characterized by seller dominance and restrained capital expenditure. Kioxia, the inventor of NAND flash memory technology and formerly known as Toshiba Memory, currently holds the third position in the global NAND market with a share of approximately 14% to 15%, according to market data from TrendForce and Omdia, trailing only Samsung (32%-35%) and SK Hynix (19%-22%).
Kawamura stated, "Currently, due to supply shortages, NAND is in a seller's market. The company is advancing negotiations for long-term contracts extending to 2028 and 2029 with customers, including hyperscale cloud service providers."
Regarding capital expenditure, Kioxia has chosen a relatively restrained approach. The company plans to invest approximately 400 billion yen over the next year. While this represents an increase of about 40% year-on-year, it remains below the peak level of 510 billion yen seen in the first quarter of 2023. The investment will primarily focus on adjusting existing production equipment due to product transitions, rather than large-scale capacity expansion.
The market implication of this strategy is straightforward: avoiding aggressive capacity expansion means supply will not increase rapidly, helping to maintain the current tight supply-demand balance.
The structure behind the high trading volume involves a battle between bulls and bears. The sharp volatility in Kioxia's share price has attracted intensive participation from individual investors and overseas short-term funds. At the same time, short positions are accumulating rapidly—the balance of short selling in margin transactions on April 3rd doubled compared to March 27th. Based on the current share price, the value of these short positions is estimated to be between 500 billion and 600 billion yen.
The fundamental disagreement between bulls and bears is itself a structural reason for the persistently high trading volume: bulls are betting on AI demand and dividend expectations, while bears are likely cautious about the rapid valuation increase. The clash of these two forces is keeping the turnover rate elevated.
Kioxia listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in December 2024. It was spun off from Toshiba in 2018 and subsequently went public under the initiative of Bain Capital. As Toshiba and Bain Capital gradually reduce their holdings, individual investors now comprise over half of Kioxia's shareholder base, which is another structural factor contributing to active trading by retail investors.
Institutional perspectives suggest that high investor interest in Kioxia is likely to continue.
Comments