The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the highly anticipated combined employment report for October and November on Tuesday. However, due to data collection disruptions caused by the recent government shutdown, the report will lack several key metrics—including the October unemployment rate, marking the first gap in this core data series since tracking began in 1948.
The longest government shutdown in history also forced the BLS to cancel the release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. It remains unclear which components of October’s CPI will be disclosed alongside November’s CPI report, scheduled for Thursday.
During the shutdown, the BLS was unable to conduct its household survey—which collects employment status data needed to calculate the unemployment rate—and government workers could not gather pricing data from supermarkets and retailers for October’s CPI and other inflation metrics.
Both the employment report and CPI data are critical for Federal Reserve policymakers in setting monetary policy, as well as for investors, businesses, and the public to assess economic health. The BLS confirmed that neither the household survey data nor October’s CPI figures can be retroactively collected.
Instead of releasing a standalone October jobs report, the BLS will combine October’s nonfarm payroll numbers and other establishment survey details with November’s report.
The employment report consists of two surveys, both conducted during the week containing the 12th of each month.
A Reuters poll of economists forecasts November nonfarm payrolls to rise by 50,000, compared with September’s increase of 119,000.
The Reuters survey expects November’s unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%, matching September’s level, which rose from 4.3% in August.
Goldman Sachs warned of potential increased volatility in the CPI data series, noting: "Collecting price data only in the second half of November may skew figures downward, as goods prices typically see steep declines starting mid-November with holiday sales."
The bank estimates delayed data collection could pressure November’s core CPI by up to 15 basis points.
"However, without October data, this pressure may appear less pronounced in the two-month sequential comparison. Any downward pressure on November prices would likely correspond to a rebound in December’s inflation figures," Goldman Sachs added.
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