Tesla (TSLA.US) CEO Elon Musk plans to use SpaceX (SPCX.US) rocket technology in Texas on October 15 to make the Tesla (TSLA.US) Roadster hover in flight, yet Wall Street has historically reacted negatively to Tesla (TSLA.US) major product launches, creating a sharp contrast between market sentiment and demo hype.
The demonstration will use compressed gas thrusters to lift the unmanned vehicle, and Musk has warned employees that the feat "is very difficult to achieve successfully and there may be accidents." On Tuesday, Tesla (TSLA.US) shares closed at $375.23, down 25% from their 52-week high.
Historical data serves as a warning: in 2019, the Cybertruck's shattered window caused the stock to fall 6%; in October 2024, the Cybercab reveal was followed by an 8.3% drop; and a related event on September 4 sent the stock down 5.92%.
The core pain point lies in the uncertainty of revenue conversion. Although Elon Musk said short sellers "almost pushed us into a corner," the company survived by solving production problems, and investors are more eager for clear pricing and delivery timelines.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that even if all 1,000 units of the Founders Series, priced at $250,000 each, were sold out, it would bring in only $250 million in revenue, a negligible impact relative to a $1.48 trillion market capitalization.
Ledger co-founder Eric Larchev锚que pointed out that Tesla (TSLA.US) currently still plans to begin mass production in 2027 or 2028. The SpaceX (SPCX.US) case offers another warning: despite Starship's successful orbital flight, post-IPO share lock-up pressure still dragged the stock down.
Friday, October 16, as the first trading day after the launch, Tesla (TSLA.US) faces a severe test; without a working prototype and a reliable production timeline, a spectacular demo alone will only deepen disappointment.
The lack of business details will cause investors to be disappointed once again, and the earnings report due on October 21 will then force attention back to the overall business.
This is another instance, after multiple launch events, of the market re-examining Tesla (TSLA.US)'s real ability to move from concept to implementation, with short-term volatility unable to hide the inevitable trend of a return to long-term fundamentals.
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