Guosen Securities released a research report stating that new global tin mining projects are primarily concentrated in 2027 and beyond, with domestic supply mainly from the second phase of Yinman Mine and overseas supply largely from Africa and Europe. Global tin ore production is projected at 283,000/308,000/312,000 tons for 2025-2027. Semiconductor sales continue to show year-on-year and sequential growth, supporting steady demand for tin, with global demand forecasted at 386,000/396,000/401,000 tons for the same period. A significant global refined tin shortage in 2025, coupled with resource scarcity and rising mining costs, is expected to drive tin prices higher.
Key insights from Guosen Securities include: 1. **Tin as an Indispensable Minor Metal with Increasing Scarcity** Tin’s low melting point, excellent conductivity, and cost-effectiveness make solder applications difficult to substitute. Global tin reserves stood at 4.2 million tons by end-2024, with annual production at 300,000 tons. The reserve-to-production ratio has declined from ~20 years in 2010 to 14 years in 2024, reflecting acute scarcity among minor metals. Reserves are highly concentrated, with China (1M tons), Myanmar (700K tons), Australia (620K tons), Russia (460K tons), Brazil (420K tons), and Bolivia (400K tons) accounting for 76.5% of the global total.
2. **Supply Disruptions and Declining Output in 2025** Global tin concentrate supply has stabilized around 300,000 tons in recent years, but declining ore grades, policy constraints, and unforeseen disruptions have tightened supply. China, the top reserve and producer, faces falling output due to lower ore quality, stricter environmental policies, and limited exploration. Indonesia’s shift to underwater mining and Myanmar’s prolonged suspension since August 2023 (with depleted inventories by 2024) further constrain supply. Risks also persist in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to rebel activity. New projects, mainly post-2027, are unlikely to offset near-term deficits.
3. **Demand Resilience Driven by Semiconductors and Industrial Applications** - **Solder (50%+ of demand)**: Strong semiconductor sales (up 27.2% YoY in October 2025) underpin tin demand, though solar ribbon usage (7% share) may dip with slower PV capacity growth. - **Tin Chemicals (16%)**: PVC heat stabilizers benefit from higher Chinese PVC output. - **Tinplate (11%)**: China’s tinplate exports surged 19% YoY in Jan-Oct 2025. Global demand is projected at 386,000/396,000/401,000 tons for 2025-2027.
4. **Market Outlook: Tight Supply and Price Support** A 16,000-ton refined tin deficit is anticipated in 2025, potentially easing post-Myanmar’s gradual restart and new project ramp-ups. However, persistent ore grade declines and low capital expenditure will likely exacerbate scarcity. Rising mining costs and supply constraints are expected to push prices upward.
**Risks**: Weaker-than-expected demand growth; higher-than-anticipated tin supply; changes in industrial policies.
Comments