Natural Rubber: On Wednesday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thailand 20# mixed rubber was priced at 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. On the raw material front, Thai rubber latex closed at 57.2 THB/kg yesterday, down 0.3 THB/kg from the previous day, while Thai cup lump price closed at 52.1 THB/kg, up 0.3 THB/kg from the previous day; production has halted in Yunnan; production has halted in Hainan. As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory stood at 1.273 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous period, up 1.3%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 850,000 tons, up 1.7%. Within this, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 2.9%; Yunnan decreased by 1%; Vietnam 10# decreased by 1.9%; and NR inventory subtotal increased by 0.17%. The total social inventory of light-colored rubber in China was 423,000 tons, up 0.6% from the previous period. Within this, old full latex decreased by 1.5% from the previous period, 3L increased by 9%, and the RU inventory subtotal increased by 1.57%. Outlook: With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is entering a low production season, signifying a shift in the pricing framework for outright prices from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on existing inventory. Against the backdrop of broadly strengthening expectations in the commodity market recently, it is expected that RU, NR, and Sicom will continue to trade at elevated levels with high volatility in the short term. Looking ahead, although a moderate growth in global demand for rubber products like tires is anticipated in 2026, this demand growth requires time, and with global trade barriers not yet fully eliminated, the magnitude of demand growth may still be constrained. Therefore, it is expected that the peak of this rebound before the 2026 Lunar New Year will likely not exceed the level seen at the end of July 2025.
PX: Supply and demand dynamics show a simultaneous reduction on both sides. China's PX industry operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month to 89.4%, while the Asian industry operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6%. The domestic industry operating rate is already at a high level for the same period in previous years, and the announced maintenance plans for January-March are weaker than in previous years. Coupled with plans for increased operating rates at overseas plants, overall supply is expected to remain ample. On the demand side, downstream PTA units still have numerous maintenance plans scheduled for the first quarter, which will suppress PX demand. The PX supply-demand balance is expected to loosen in the first quarter. US President Trump stated that a framework for a future agreement on Greenland has been reached and announced that tariffs originally set to take effect on February 1st will not be imposed. Boosted by this news, US stocks and the US Dollar Index closed higher. The latest IEA monthly report raised its 2026 oil demand growth forecast but also noted that the market still faces oversupply pressures. API crude inventories for the current period showed a larger-than-expected build. As falling temperatures drive a significant strengthening in European and US natural gas prices, Brent crude oil prices have also rebounded. Furthermore, considering that the root causes of geopolitical risks related to Iran remain unresolved, this factor is expected to continue providing a floor for oil prices. Overall, the polyester industry still has underlying support, but terminal demand is showing a seasonal weakening trend. The industrial chain is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. The PX May futures price found support twice near 7086 after a short-term adjustment and subsequently rose again with increasing open interest, showing short-term strength. However, relative to fundamentals, the futures price appears overbought, with market sentiment clearly driven by capital flows. Consider reducing long positions near previous highs and adding on pullbacks.
PTA: Supply and demand dynamics show a simultaneous reduction on both sides. The PTA industry operating rate decreased by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month to 76.3%, which is at a relatively low level for the same period in previous years. Combined with numerous maintenance plans in the first quarter, supply expectations are shrinking. On the demand side, the atmosphere for new orders is generally weak, and the operating rates of terminal factories in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region continue to decline. The polyester industry operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 88.3%, and industry operating rates are expected to accelerate their decline starting from late in the month. Overall, the fundamental situation in the TA-polyester segment currently has some support, and PTA spot basis is generally strong. However, its sustainability will be tested by expectations of polyester production cuts, while weakening terminal demand will also exert downward pressure. The industrial chain faces inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. Strong support for the TA May contract below the 5000 level has been confirmed. Industrial players may consider rolling short hedging within the 5100-5300 range. Medium-term investors can hold long positions, reduce them between 5200-5300, and add more on pullbacks around 5100. Related Market News Production-Sales: Polyester filament production-sales in Jiangsu-Zhejiang saw localized increases on Wednesday, with the average estimated at around 80% as of 3:30 PM. Production-sales rates for several factories were 120%, 70%, 80%, 80%, 35%, 100%, 0%, 50%, 80%, 40%, 200%, 100%, 0%, 70%, 45%, 120%, 30%, 150%, 150% respectively.
EG: Supply and demand dynamics show increasing supply and decreasing demand. Domestically, the ethylene glycol industry operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 74.4%. Within this, the operating rate for syngas-based production increased by 1.6 percentage points to 80.2%, which is at a high level for the same period in previous years. Furthermore, current prices are not yet sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts, and the spot basis is weak. Although high freight costs and maintenance of Middle Eastern plants may reduce imports in the first quarter, overall supply pressure remains due to ample domestic supply. On the demand side, new order performance is weak, and the operating rates of terminal factories in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region continue to decline. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in January, with February potentially becoming the period of greatest inventory pressure in the first half of the year. Overall, although the macroeconomic sentiment has warmed somewhat, the industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, with supply pressure being the dominant factor. In the short term, the EG May contract price has broken below the lower support level of 3700; consider short-term long positions. The EG May contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the 3650-3900 range.
PF: Supply and demand dynamics show stable supply and decreasing demand. The operating rate for spun yarn direct-spun polyester staple fiber remained flat at 99.1%. Low inventory levels at enterprises support production willingness, keeping industry operating rates high, and the announced maintenance plans are relatively limited. On the demand side, downstream yarn enterprises are entering the pre-holiday winding-down phase. Coupled with pressure for capital repatriation, enterprises are generally accelerating collections and becoming more cautious in purchasing, with the characteristics of the demand off-season becoming more apparent. Affected by fewer terminal orders, some factories have begun to reduce operating rates in advance. The operating rate for polyester yarn decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 61.0% and is expected to decline more rapidly starting from late in the month, subsequently suppressing demand for staple fiber. In the short term, weak terminal demand will continue to cap prices, but support from the cost end remains. The PF March futures price continues to strengthen along with raw material prices; consider medium-term long positions on dips. Alternatively, consider rolling operations involving going long TA May and shorting PF May. Related Market News Production-Sales: Direct-spun polyester staple fiber sales declined on Wednesday. As of around 3:00 PM, the average production-sales rate was 78%. Production-sales rates for some factories were: 50%, 100%, 20%, 70%, 150%, 80%, 100%, 60%, 10%, 60%, 50%.
PR: Supply and demand dynamics show decreasing supply and weak demand. On the supply side, the bottle chip industry operating rate decreased by 6.4 percentage points month-on-month to 68.4%. The industry operating rate is already at a low level for the same period in previous years. With planned shutdowns still scheduled for units like Yisheng Hainan later, supply is expected to continue contracting. On the demand side, the current period is the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, and the room for production recovery in January-February is expected to be limited. Due to sustained production cuts in the polyester bottle chip industry since the fourth quarter of last year and further cuts around the Spring Festival this year, the bottle chip industry has been continuously destocking. Recent spot supply is tight, the basis has strengthened, and processing margins have expanded rapidly. The PR March futures price continues to strengthen along with raw material prices; consider medium-term long positions on dips. For the short term, consider a long PR/short PF pair trade.
Soda Ash: Soda ash futures fell slightly on Wednesday, while spot prices held steady to slightly lower. Commodity markets were mixed on Wednesday, with general market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, recent maintenance schedules for soda ash have decreased. Last week's soda ash output increased by 22,000 tons week-on-week to 775,000 tons, indicating a recent recovery in production and increased supply-side pressure. Downstream demand declined slightly. The latest alkali plant inventory decreased by 31,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.544 million tons. The latest delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 15,400 tons from the previous week to 372,300 tons. There were no changes in float glass production lines last week, while instances of blocked ports in photovoltaic glass furnaces increased. Recently, the combined daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, leading to decreased demand for heavy soda ash, while demand for light soda ash remains stable for now. Purchasing enthusiasm among midstream and downstream players has weakened. Soda ash imports edged up slightly to 3,500 tons in December, while exports rose to 232,700 tons. Macro-wise, recent domestic real estate sales data showed a slight month-on-month increase but remained below last year's levels; international macro influences are relatively neutral (US Dollar Index rose, trade friction concerns eased); domestic policy disturbances have diminished. Overall, with short-term supply increasing and demand weakening, the 'anti-involution'博弈 game has cooled down. Fundamentals are a drag, and soda ash is expected to trade weakly with volatility for now. On warehouse receipts, soda ash warehouse receipts decreased by 2,210 lots on Wednesday to 222 lots. Soda ash futures prices are expected to trade with weak volatility in the short term. For SA2605, the intraday reference range is 1150-1190.
Glass: Glass futures fell significantly on Wednesday, while spot prices held steady to slightly lower. The short-term fundamental picture for glass shows weak supply and demand, with supply pressure easing. Last week's glass production increased slightly week-on-week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved, and inventories decreased week-on-week. The latest glass inventory decreased by 125,000 tons to 2.651 million tons, but was up 20.9% year-on-year. There were no changes in glass production lines last week. The recent daily melting capacity for glass has declined, with the latest in-operation daily melting capacity at 150,745 T/D, down approximately 4.0% year-on-year. Domestic completed floor area from January to December decreased by 18.1% year-on-year (the decline widened). Recent real estate sales data showed a slight month-on-month increase but remained below last year's levels. The latest number of orders at glass deep-processing enterprises increased by 0.7 days to 9.3 days. Short-term glass supply has decreased, but expectations for the restart and ignition of some production lines are putting pressure on prices. Demand is seasonally weak, and futures prices are expected to trade with weak volatility for now. Glass futures prices are expected to trade with low-level volatility in the short term. For FG2605, the intraday reference range is 1030-1070.
Caustic Soda: As of January 21, 2026, the SH2602 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 1,883 yuan/ton, and the SH2603 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 1,939 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda was 580-710 yuan/ton, holding steady compared to the previous working day's average price. A large local downstream alumina plant lowered its liquid caustic soda purchase price by 15 yuan/ton, now at 615 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price for 50% ion-membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 1,040-1,070 yuan/ton, holding steady compared to the previous working day's average price. Downstream and trader uptake was average, and chlor-alkali enterprises face significant shipment pressure. However, with poor profitability, chlor-alkali enterprises have an intention to support prices, and as some are not operating at full capacity, prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda held steady. Short-term caustic soda supply remains high. With liquid chlorine prices staying relatively strong and expectations of a rush for PVC exports, the negative feedback on operating rates is insufficient. Current demand is weak, and the further reduction in purchase prices by alumina enterprises is weighing on the futures market. A weak trend is expected to continue in the short term. Strategy: Weak on a standalone basis. For the main SH2603 contract, the reference price range is 1900-2100 yuan/ton.
PVC: As of the day session close on January 21, 2026, the PVC2605 contract fell 64 yuan/ton to 4,743 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price basis against the main futures contract was -223 yuan/ton (strengthened by 14 yuan/ton on a daily basis), the North China spot basis was -453 yuan/ton (strengthened by 54 yuan/ton daily), and the South China spot basis against the main contract was -203 yuan/ton (strengthened by 24 yuan/ton daily). Short-term reality versus expectations are in contention. Fundamentally, the supply-side operating rate remains on an upward trend month-on-month, and supply pressure has not significantly eased. Positive news includes a substantial slowdown in the pace of PVC capacity additions in 2026. In the short term, the 'anti-involution' drive based on differentiated electricity prices in 2026 is expected to remain a driver for coal-chemical chain PVC. Furthermore, the cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial for exports from January to March. Short-term fundamental improvements are limited, but expectations are somewhat optimistic, suggesting range-bound movement. Strategy: Range-bound on a standalone basis. For the main V2605 contract, the reference price range is 4600-4900 yuan/ton.
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