Gold prices showed resilience on Tuesday, with COMEX gold reversing early losses to close at $4,396.20 per ounce, up 0.28%. The intraday move reflected a bounce from initial selling pressure as market participants weighed improving inflation expectations against lingering concerns over future rate hikes.
On the domestic front, SHFE gold opened slightly higher during the night session and accelerated gains toward the close, settling at 941.10 yuan per gram, a rise of 0.36%. The positive momentum in both markets suggests that investors are cautiously re-engaging with the precious metal amid mixed macroeconomic signals.
Employment data from ADP revealed that U.S. private sector payrolls grew by an average of 20,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending September 5. This softer labor market reading has reinforced expectations that economic momentum may be cooling, which could limit the Federal Reserve's appetite for aggressive monetary tightening.
The Boston Fed President voiced support for last week's rate increase, arguing that higher borrowing costs are essential to ensure inflation returns to its target range. However, the latest dot plot following the Fed's September decision indicates the possibility of one additional hike before year-end, while internal disagreements among policymakers over using rates to combat inflation have capped gold's speculative upside.
Geopolitical developments also played a role, as former President Trump noted that negotiations with Iran are ongoing and could eventually lead to an agreement. This potential easing of tensions may reduce safe-haven demand for gold, although the market remains attentive to any signs of escalation.
Looking ahead, investors are closely monitoring U.S. economic and employment trends. Any data points that fall short of expectations could strengthen the market's conviction in a stagflation narrative, potentially drawing more capital into gold as a hedge. At the same time, there are signs that energy inflation has become a shared target for policymakers, adding further uncertainty to the Fed's rate trajectory for the remainder of the year.
Given these dynamics, gold is likely to remain constrained by ongoing worries about additional rate hikes. Traders should exercise caution and avoid overextending positions, as the metal's near-term direction hinges on both inflation data and central bank communications.
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