A-share investors pay attention to authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive analyst research to help uncover potential thematic opportunities. The three major A-share indices closed mixed today. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.23%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.7%, and the STAR 50 Index declined 2.51%. Total market turnover reached 1.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.5 billion yuan from the previous day, with more than 2,800 individual stocks falling across the market.
On the sector front, biological products, recombinant proteins, CRO concepts, medical services, and baijiu led the gains, while components, communication services, semiconductors, memory chips, and electronic chemicals lagged. In terms of market action, the biological products sector was strong throughout the day, with CanSino Biologics, Kangchen Pharmaceutical, and Trinomab Biotech hitting the daily limit, while Sanyuan Gene, Novoprotein, and ACROBiosystems posted leading gains. The baijiu sector saw a late-session surge, with Jinhui Liquor hitting the daily limit, Gujing Distillery briefly approaching the limit, and Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Jinshiyuan among the top gainers. The real estate sector showed strong resilience, with Shenzhen Properties A staging a "floor-to-ceiling" reversal, while China Vanke A and Gemdale Corporation rallied sharply after both briefly hitting the daily limit down in early trading. Additionally, Lujiazui, Zhongtian Service, and Rongfeng Holding all hit the daily limit, with Binjiang Group and Shanghai Lingang among the top performers.
The components sector was sluggish all day, with Aohong Electronics and Xiehe Electronics hitting the daily limit down, while Guanghe Technology, Jinlu Electronics, and Weiergao led the declines. The semiconductor sector fluctuated lower, with VeriSilicon dropping more than 10%, and Kangqiang Electronics, JoulWatt, and Chipsea Technologies among the biggest losers.
At the index level, boosted by policy tailwinds on September 29, A-shares rebounded to a resistance level, awaiting a post-holiday breakout on higher volume. Yesterday, multiple government departments jointly released a series of positive measures, the most significant of which was the central government's formal announcement of a 1 percentage point interest subsidy on commercial personal housing loans. To some extent, this had already been anticipated by the market. Bloomberg had previously reported that fiscal authorities might stabilize real estate through interest subsidies, and since late July, the real estate sector has accumulated gains of over 15%, with sector leader China Vanke A recently posting three consecutive daily limit-ups.
What is most noteworthy, however, is that today's market sentiment was clearly stronger than most people expected. Conventionally, when positive news materializes, it often marks a point where funds take profits. In a strong market, this results in a high open followed by a low close, offering a selling opportunity at the open; in a weak market, it leads to a gap-down open. Today, China Vanke A indeed opened at the daily limit down, confirming this convention, but then staged a powerful rally and closed up 4.41%. Moreover, this was achieved on shrinking volume, with total market turnover below 1.5 trillion yuan at just 1.45 trillion yuan, making it all the more remarkable.
Looking at the Shanghai Composite Index trend, it closed at 3,842.19 points today, facing triple-top neckline resistance levels at 3,850.86 and 3,842.72 points above. We believe that after the National Day holiday, once third-quarter fund report data is fully compiled, phased risk-aversion demand will decline, and market turnover is expected to expand. If turnover can return above 2 trillion yuan, combined with the gradual introduction of subsequent growth-stabilization policies, A-shares may still have room for a counterattack. Specifically, the market would first need to break through the 3,842-3,850 point neckline zone, then break through the 3,967-3,995 point head zone. Breaking the neckline would signal a reversal of the downtrend, while breaking the head would mean the entire technical pattern has fully reversed, opening up further upside space.
At the sector level, the "drink medicine and liquor" trade has reappeared, with traditional industries rising once again, creating a seesaw effect with the technology sector. Today, there was a clear seesaw effect between traditional industries and the technology sector. While this is partly due to pre-holiday risk aversion, considering that today is the last trading day and buying funds must hold positions through the holiday, post-holiday trends deserve more attention, which also provides some insight. Currently, the most noteworthy factor is growth-stabilization policy. The market has entered the fourth-quarter sprint period, and since there have already been early moves before the holiday, more follow-up policies may land intensively after the holiday, potentially putting traditional sectors into a favorable period. Under this scenario, the upside space for traditional sectors would further open up. What was previously just valuation repair after being oversold may shift toward trading the macroeconomic backstop provided by stimulus policies.
By contrast, the technology sector has yet to see an industrial narrative capable of galvanizing market enthusiasm, and the Muse effect has limited uplifting impact on the entire tech sector. It cannot be ruled out that the technology sector may continue to lose capital as traditional sectors rise. Note: Markets carry risk, and investment requires caution. Under no circumstances do the information or opinions contained in this subscription represent anything more than an exchange of views and do not constitute investment advice for anyone. This message is reprinted from a Sina partner media outlet. Sina publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it endorses or confirms its views or descriptions. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this do so at their own risk.
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