CITIC SEC has released a research report stating that Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors (MLCCs) are widely used in servers and optical modules. Benefiting from server power increases, vertical power delivery, and upgrades like 800V architecture, MLCCs are expected to see opportunities for growth in both volume and price. Currently, buoyed by strong AI-related demand, the MLCC industry is entering a new cycle of price increases and rising prosperity. The report is also optimistic about domestic manufacturers leveraging this trend to accelerate breakthroughs in high-specification products for servers and automotive applications.
CITIC SEC's key views are as follows: MLCCs have extensive applications in servers and optical modules, with the upgrade to 800V architecture driving demand for medium and high-voltage components. The core functions of MLCCs in circuit systems are coupling, decoupling, smoothing, and filtering, covering the entire power chain from primary to tertiary levels in AI servers. According to TrendForce, NVIDIA's VR200 NVL72 server will use approximately 600,000 MLCCs, over 30% more than the current GB300 platform, encompassing voltage specifications ranging from 2.5V to over a thousand volts. MLCCs are indispensable core passive components in the development of the AI wave.
In terms of development trends, vertical power delivery solutions in servers, 800V server architectures, and increasing optical module data rates are placing higher demands on MLCCs for miniaturization, high power density, high-temperature resistance, and high voltage tolerance. This further drives MLCC specification upgrades and increases overall value. For example, in motherboard applications, TrendForce data indicates that MLCCs larger than 1u account for 60% of the usage on GB200 server motherboards, with high-temperature resistant products like X6S/X7S/X7R making up as much as 85% of usage. CITIC SEC estimates that by 2030, MLCC shipments and market size in the server sector will account for 5%~10% and 20%~30% of the global market, respectively.
According to data from TrendForce and QY Research, global MLCC shipments and market size in 2025 are projected to be approximately 5-6 trillion units and over $200 billion, respectively. Focusing on the server sector: 1) Server Shipments: Based on TrendForce data and forecasts, global server and AI server shipments in 2026 are expected to be over 16 million units and over 2.7 million units, respectively. 2) MLCC Usage per Unit: Combining data from Samsung Electro-Mechanics, CITIC SEC assumes average MLCC usage per general server and AI server in 2026 will be 2,200 units and 28,000 units, respectively. Considering overall server power upgrades, the firm anticipates significant room for growth in MLCC usage per AI server unit in the future. 3) Overall MLCC Shipments and Market Size: CITIC SEC calculates that global MLCC shipments for servers in 2026 will be on the scale of hundreds of billions of units (accounting for about 2% of the current total MLCC market shipments), potentially expanding to over 400 billion units by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40%. Given that MLCCs for servers have significantly higher performance requirements (smaller size, higher capacitance, higher temperature resistance) compared to standard MLCC products, the firm assumes the average unit price for server-grade MLCCs is 3 to 5 times (or higher) that of standard MLCCs. Therefore, CITIC SEC estimates that the market size for server-grade MLCCs will account for about 10% and 20~30% of the global market in 2026 and 2030, respectively.
The global MLCC market is expected to enter a new cycle of price increases and upward momentum. Currently, major global MLCC leaders are expressing positive views on industry sentiment, particularly regarding AI. Details from their earnings calls and announcements include: 1) Murata: Due to strong AI-related demand (orders are double capacity) and high operational rates (overall MLCC capacity utilization reached 90%–95% by the end of 2025), Murata forecasts its overall capacitor (including MLCC) ASP to increase 5% to 10% year-over-year in 2026, with server-related sales in its capacitor division expected to grow 85% to 90% year-over-year. 2) Samsung Electro-Mechanics: Its Q1 2026 Component Solution business revenue increased 16% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high growth in AI-related server, power supply, and network sales, along with expanded supply of automotive MLCCs. The company expects continued growth in demand for high-end AI server/data center products. Strong AI server demand is causing overall supply tightness, with blended ASPs improving due to a better product mix. The company plans a "strategic response to pricing," potentially driving price increases of 5% to 10%. 3) Taiyo Yuden: Will raise prices for some components, including MLCCs, starting in May.
CITIC SEC firmly believes domestic manufacturers will benefit from this upward cycle and the AI wave. Currently, Japanese and South Korean manufacturers dominate the global MLCC market. According to Murata's announcements, its global MLCC market share is about 40%, with a roughly 50% share in automotive MLCCs. In recent years, mainland Chinese manufacturers have actively promoted customer adoption and capacity expansion. The firm is also optimistic that domestic manufacturers will benefit from this MLCC industry upcycle, potentially enjoying capacity spillover as overseas leaders focus on the AI sector. Initially benefiting from increased market share, if industry price increases persist longer than expected, domestic players may also follow with price hikes and accelerate breakthroughs and volume production in high-specification products like AI servers and automotive-grade components.
Risk Factors: AI industry development falling short of expectations; MLCC manufacturers facing challenges in passing on price increases downstream; domestic manufacturers' new business expansion falling short of expectations; worsening competitive landscape; accumulation of downstream inventory; demand falling short of expectations.
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