Iran and the United States have been holding talks in New York through Qatari mediators, with Tehran submitting its conditions to end the seven-month full-scale war. The proposal from Iran could pave the way for restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, rekindling a glimmer of hope for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. With Washington reimposing a maritime blockade, Iranian crude exports have nearly dried up.
According to Iran International, Iran has handed over its terms for ending the seven-month war during negotiations with the U.S. in New York, facilitated by Qatari intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that Tehran's conditions include halting what it calls American "acts of aggression," lifting the maritime blockade and economic war, and releasing Iran's frozen assets. The proposal lays out a concrete plan for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas traffic before the war, offering renewed hope that diplomacy might end the prolonged conflict.
A senior Iranian official added that if the U.S. eases military pressure and lifts the blockade on Iranian ports, Iran could reopen the strait within a week. Speaking at the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, Trump said he faces two options: reaching a deal or taking stronger military action. He later told reporters that U.S. officials and an Iranian envoy held a "very productive" meeting on the sidelines of the assembly.
"Is it a deal with Iran, or do I quickly and completely crush this Islamic Republic?" Trump said on Tuesday, while also calling on all nations to impose "total economic isolation" on Iran. Trump further predicted that an agreement could be reached after the U.S. midterm elections in November. "I believe we can sign the deal after the election, since it would be unwise for them not to," he said. "They are watching how I perform in the midterms."
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below normal levels. Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows that confirmed crude transits through the strait averaged 6.98 million barrels per day in the seven days ending September 20, just 38% of the pre-war baseline of 18.3 million barrels per day. Following the reimposition of the U.S. maritime blockade, Iran's own crude exports have fallen to nearly zero. Kpler estimates that Iranian crude loadings have dropped to zero so far in September, down from 893,000 barrels per day in July.
The shipping research firm noted on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz is "increasingly becoming a Saudi-dominated transit route." Earlier this month, Houthi attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, prompting Riyadh to shift its export operations to its Gulf coast ports. A temporary peace agreement signed between Washington and Tehran in July collapsed just weeks after its signing, and neither side has disclosed a timeline for the next round of negotiations.
Oil prices retreated on the prospect of diplomatic progress. International Brent crude futures fell 0.9% to $98.37 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 1.5% to $89.16 per barrel.
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