Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, gold prices surged to $4,871 yesterday before experiencing a sharp pullback, closing with a medium bearish candlestick featuring a long upper shadow. This pattern signals a short-term top formation, indicating a "rally and retreat" scenario, which has led to current price pressure below the 5-day moving average (around $4,825). The market is now in a phase of consolidating bullish momentum, with no signs of a trend reversal yet. Regarding trend indicators, the MACD histogram continues to contract. Although bullish momentum above the zero line has weakened slightly, a death cross has not formed, further confirming that the overall trend remains intact. The RSI has retreated from the overbought zone of 78 to 58, indicating some exhaustion in bullish strength but still maintaining a neutral-to-strong position without entering bearish territory.
Support Levels: The primary support lies near the intraday low around $4,800-$4,810, which serves as both a key consolidation area and an important psychological barrier for the market, closely aligned with the current price. Secondary support is found at $4,750-$4,755, corresponding to the 10-day moving average and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, representing a crucial support zone for the medium-to-long-term bullish trend. Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance is at $4,850-$4,855, which marks the upper boundary of the weekly consolidation range and a zone of concentrated selling pressure, making a breakout challenging. Strong resistance lies at $4,870-$4,871, yesterday's high, which also acts as a阶段性 top. A breakout here would require significant catalyst-driven momentum in the short term.
Hourly Chart: The price action shows a narrow-range consolidation with a slight bullish bias. After testing a low of $4,810.7 during the early session, prices have been oscillating higher with gradually rising peaks. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have turned upward, forming a golden cross that provides dynamic support for the current price. The price is moving within a short-term ascending channel, with the lower boundary at $4,815 and the upper boundary at $4,838, defining a clear near-term range that aligns with the four-hour chart's converging pattern. Momentum indicators show the RSI recovering to around 55, moving out of the weaker zone with bulls holding a slight advantage. The MACD has formed a golden cross above the zero line, with the histogram showing mild expansion, indicating a gentle release of short-term rebound momentum. However, due to resistance from the daily and four-hour charts, the upside potential remains limited, with no signs of a unilateral trend emerging. Support on the hourly chart is robust around $4,815-$4,820, corresponding to the lower channel boundary and the current price zone. The $4,805-$4,810 area, aligning with the intraday low, forms联动 support with the daily level; holding above this level could sustain the short-term rebound. Resistance is observed at $4,835-$4,838, near the channel's upper limit and the day's high, acting as a key barrier for the near-term bounce. A break above $4,845-$4,850, which aligns with daily resistance, could pave the way for a test of the stronger daily resistance level.
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