1. UK housing market growth slowed significantly in November, with prices flat month-on-month (0% vs. October’s 0.5%) and annual growth dropping to 0.7%—the lowest since March 2024, per Halifax data. Analysts attribute the slowdown to buyer caution ahead of the Autumn Budget and base effects from last year’s surge. Despite this, affordability remains at its strongest since 2015, with expectations of gradual recovery in 2024 supported by anticipated BoE rate cuts (25bps to 3.75% in December).
2. US consumer confidence edged up to 53.3 in early December (vs. 51.0 in November), though inflation and labor market concerns persist. One-year inflation expectations eased to 4.1% (from 4.5%), while five-year outlooks dipped to 3.2%.
3. US economic data revealed weakening Q3 consumption (0.3% MoM, driven by prices) and sticky inflation (PCE at 2.8% YoY), fueling Fed rate-cut bets (90% odds for December). A "K-shaped" divide emerged: high-income households buoyed services spending, while lower-income groups faced pressure from tariffs and weak employment.
**Market Watch**: - GBPUSD traded 1.3179–1.3384 last week, supported by BoE-Fed policy divergence but facing technical resistance near 1.3400 (50% Fib of 1.3787–1.3008 drop). A break above could target 1.3550; failure risks retreat to 1.3200 support. - UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.5% on energy/ financial drags (BP -2.6%, Shell -1.4%), while luxury stocks like Burberry (+1.4%) gained.
**Geopolitics**: - Ukraine talks advanced as Macron pledged "unwavering" Western support amid Russian infrastructure attacks. - Gaza truce negotiations entered a "critical phase," with Israel demanding Hamas disarmament ahead of Netanyahu-Trump talks.
**Technical Outlook**: GBPUSD’s uptrend remains intact post-1.3200 breakout, but RSI cooling suggests near-term consolidation. Key levels: 1.3320 (support), 1.3400 (resistance).
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