April 16: In the previous trading session on Wednesday, April 15, international gold prices encountered resistance, retreated, and closed lower. Although a ceasefire in Lebanon was set to take effect in the evening, reports suggested that Netanyahu might once again disrupt the agreement. News indicated that Iran had not yet agreed to extend the ceasefire request, and the White House also denied formally requesting an extension, which limited the decline in oil prices but weighed on gold prices. Gold remained below the resistance of the 60-day moving average, suggesting ongoing risks of volatile adjustments. Support levels to watch below include the 100-day and 144-day moving averages; a touch of these levels could present buying opportunities. A break above the 60-day moving average resistance could be followed with a bullish trend.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,839.76 per ounce. After brief consolidation, it initially rose to record an intraday high of $4,870.95 before encountering resistance and pulling back. The session was characterized by a volatile retreat pattern. During the European session, it hit an intraday low of $4,786.48. Although it rebounded from this level, the momentum was unsustainable. In the latter part of the US session, it traded in a range above the day's low, eventually closing at $4,790.55. The daily trading range was $84.47, with a closing decline of $49.21, or 1.02%.
Looking ahead to Thursday, April 16, international gold opened with a stabilizing and slightly stronger bias due to support buying. Additionally, reports that Iran proposed allowing free passage for ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz weakened the momentum for an oil price rebound, contributing to an early session rebound tendency for gold.
Focus during the day will be on US economic data, including the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 11, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April, and the Industrial Production month-over-month figure for March. Market expectations generally lean towards data that could be favorable for gold prices. Therefore, similar to yesterday, the US session today may see some rebound momentum, but its sustainability will depend on developments in geopolitical tensions. Trading strategies can consider both long and short opportunities, focusing on short-term moving averages and resistance levels for entry points.
Fundamentally, the recent logic driving the gold market differs from traditional perceptions. Currently, prices decline when geopolitical tensions escalate and rebound when they ease. The primary driver now revolves around the monetary policy and interest rate outlook of the Federal Reserve, rather than pure safe-haven demand. Thus, when避险 sentiment rises, which directly pressures oil prices higher, inflation concerns intensify. This, in turn, reduces expectations for Fed rate cuts and negatively impacts gold prices.
However, as gold remains a classic safe-haven asset, its overall price action manifests as volatile, range-bound trading. Compared to recent months, it resembles a 'monkey market' (distinct from bear or bull markets). Nevertheless, the directional view for the next one to two years remains biased towards the upside.
Although gold has entered a new phase dominated by interest rates, with geopolitics playing a secondary role in the short term, bullish momentum is constrained. As long as the high-interest-rate environment persists, gold is prone to corrections after rallies, but overall movement is expected to remain volatile.
Long-term supportive factors remain, including a weaker US dollar outlook and continued central bank gold purchases. If the Fed signals potential rate cuts or if tensions in the Middle East escalate again, gold possesses the potential to restart an upward trend and reach new highs. The current staged rebound target remains near the $5,100 mark.
Technically, on a monthly chart, gold's March closing price remained above the ascending trendline, maintaining a bullish outlook. The April opening also held above this trendline. As long as future closes do not break below this trendline, the prospect of new highs remains.
On the weekly chart, gold maintains some rebound momentum this week but is still pressured by the 10-week moving average resistance. Until a weekly close decisively breaks above the 10-week moving average, there remains a risk of a pullback towards the $4,450 area. A break above the 10-week moving average resistance could pave the way for another test of the all-time high.
On the daily chart, gold encountered resistance and pulled back yesterday, with bullish momentum weakening. However, there are multiple moving average supports below, suggesting a volatile adjustment phase. Therefore, for intraday trading, watch for buying opportunities near supports like the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. Resistance levels to monitor above are near yesterday's opening price and the 60-day moving average around $4,920. A break above the $4,920 resistance could target the $5,100 level. Conversely, failure to break higher may lead to a pullback and adjustment, awaiting a retest of support near the 100-day or 144-day moving averages for potential staged long entries.
Gold: Support levels to watch are near $4,775 and $4,730; resistance levels are near $4,845, $4,875, and $4,920. Silver: Support levels to watch are near $78.05 and $76.75; resistance levels are near $80.60 and $82.15.
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