The United Arab Emirates, the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, announced on the 28th that it will withdraw from OPEC and the "OPEC+" mechanism starting May 1, with plans to gradually increase production in the future. The UAE stated that this decision reflects its long-term strategy, economic vision, and evolving energy structure.
Analysts note that the UAE's departure as a long-standing OPEC member could trigger instability and diminish the organization's influence, dealing a significant blow to OPEC and its top producer, Saudi Arabia. Although OPEC members have disagreements on geopolitical issues and production quotas, they typically present a united front externally.
Some analysts also view the UAE's exit as a victory for former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has accused OPEC of exploiting the world by driving up oil prices.
Coinciding with the UAE's announcement, the World Bank's April Commodity Markets Outlook report projected that global energy prices could surge by 24% by 2026, even if severe supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts end by May.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei stated in a media interview that the decision to leave OPEC was influenced by current restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and emphasized that the move would have limited impact on global oil markets. He added that being free from OPEC obligations would grant the UAE greater flexibility to collaborate with partners and investors to meet future global demand for crude oil, petrochemicals, and natural gas.
Al Mazrouei noted that the UAE anticipates rising global energy needs and considered the current timing appropriate for this policy shift. He explained that with the Strait of Hormuz currently obstructed, the UAE's withdrawal is expected to avoid major market disruptions. Due to recent U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, Persian Gulf oil producers are currently unable to export goods via the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway handling about one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
When asked whether the UAE consulted Saudi Arabia before making the decision, Al Mazrouei stressed that it was a sovereign policy choice, not a political one.
The UAE government stated that its withdrawal followed a comprehensive assessment of its oil production policies and current and future capacity, aiming to better meet international market demands. Analysts interpret this as an indication that the UAE intends to increase production.
Prior to recent Middle East conflicts, the UAE accounted for 10–15% of OPEC's total output. Exiting the organization would free the UAE from OPEC production quotas. Former Gazprom executive Sergey Vakulenko suggested that the UAE aims to boost output by 30%, which would be unattainable under OPEC+ restrictions.
Experts, including Bao Chengzhang from the Shanghai International Studies University, noted that with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, the UAE seeks to utilize idle capacity and leverage the advantage of the Fujairah port, which is unaffected by the strait’s disruptions. Bloomberg analysis also indicated that the UAE aims to capitalize on geographic advantages to gain "war premiums" by exceeding OPEC quotas. The UAE has long pursued pipeline projects bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to mitigate geopolitical risks.
Founded in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, OPEC's mission is to coordinate oil production and ensure stable revenues for member countries. Before the UAE's exit, OPEC members accounted for approximately 36% of global oil production and controlled about 80% of proven oil reserves. The UAE joined in 1967 and was the third-largest producer within OPEC as of February. Its departure reduces OPEC membership to 11 countries.
The UAE did not consult any Gulf nations in advance, including Saudi Arabia, which is widely regarded as OPEC's de facto leader. Analysts such as Ajay Parmar from an independent commodity information service noted that the move was not entirely surprising, given the UAE's historical disagreements with OPEC's production policies.
Bao Chengzhang emphasized that the decision underscores the UAE's determination to independently control its oil production. Against the backdrop of global energy transition, the UAE has been pursuing economic diversification and aims to monetize its oil reserves before global fossil fuel demand declines. Exiting OPEC+ would enable the UAE to maximize revenue and fund its domestic economic transformation.
Further analysis suggests that if Middle East conflicts persist, the UAE may seek to rapidly extract and sell oil to secure revenue amid threats to regional infrastructure.
Some analysts warn that the UAE's exit could mark the beginning of the end for OPEC. Energy analyst Sol Kavanik noted that OPEC would not only lose about 15% of its production capacity but also one of its most compliant members. Other OPEC countries may follow suit, potentially reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics and global oil markets.
According to recent OPEC data, the UAE produces approximately 2.9 million barrels of crude per day, while Saudi Arabia produces around 9 million. Kavanik suggested that without the UAE, Saudi Arabia would struggle to maintain unity among remaining members and may have to shoulder most internal compliance and market management responsibilities.
Geopolitical experts believe the UAE's decision is linked not only to economic interests and longstanding dissatisfaction with OPEC but also to current conflict risks and regional security dynamics. Bao Chengzhang pointed out that the UAE suffered significant losses from Iranian retaliatory strikes during recent conflicts and was disappointed by the Gulf Cooperation Council's response, which influenced its decision.
The U.S. has long urged major oil producers to increase output and criticized OPEC+ quota mechanisms. Analysts suggest that by leaving OPEC+ amid high global energy prices, the UAE is strategically distancing itself from the Saudi-led bloc.
Many analysts agree that the UAE's departure—combined with its willingness and ability to raise production—could substantially weaken OPEC's influence in global energy markets. Previous exits by Qatar and Angola had less impact than the UAE's move is expected to have. Industry insiders also worry that without OPEC's coordination, international oil market volatility could intensify.
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