Japan is intensifying its global energy diplomacy in response to supply tensions stemming from the Middle East situation, actively seeking alternative energy sources worldwide. However, due to constraints such as refinery compatibility, transportation costs, and geopolitical factors, the country faces significant challenges in reducing its reliance on Middle Eastern energy in the short term.
Prime Minister Sana Takaichi is scheduled to visit Australia later this month, with energy cooperation expected to be a central topic. Australia is Japan's largest overseas supplier of liquefied natural gas. Concurrently, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi will travel to Africa, including Angola, one of the continent's major energy producers. This month, Motegi also held talks with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Oman, both of which possess ports that can bypass the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Additionally, Japan is looking toward major energy-producing nations in Central Asia and Latin America. Central Asia represents a potential new source of oil for Japan, which already has existing cooperation foundations in the region. A Japanese foreign ministry official stated that feasibility studies are being conducted in coordination with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, private companies, and partners regarding energy procurement from Central Asia. In Latin America, Japan is engaging in working-level discussions with countries like Brazil and Argentina to explore potential energy cooperation, despite having previously imported almost no oil from the region.
These actions reflect a sense of urgency highlighting Japan's heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels. The energy challenges arising from the Middle East situation have served as a renewed warning, prompting Japan to intensify efforts to diversify its energy supply sources.
Data shows that 94% of Japan's crude oil imports come from the Middle East, with almost all shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, Japan increased oil imports from the United States, which is considered a primary option in its diversification strategy. While the U.S. accounted for only 4% of Japan's total crude imports in 2025, imports in May this year are projected to be four times higher than the same period last year. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia and Vietnam are turning their attention to Russia. However, Japan's stance on the Ukraine conflict complicates any significant expansion of energy imports from Russia.
Efforts to secure new oil and gas sources globally have yielded few breakthroughs outside the United States. Japanese refineries are specifically designed to process medium and heavy sour crude, which is precisely the type exported from the Persian Gulf. This compatibility has cemented Japan's long-term reliance on the region. Furthermore, the shift to fossil fuels after the Fukushima nuclear accident deepened this dependency and exposed vulnerabilities in the energy supply chain. This reliance is seen as structural rather than merely strategic, making it difficult to resolve quickly through policy measures alone.
Substantially reducing dependence on Middle Eastern energy would require years of sustained investment and policy support to develop the necessary infrastructure, contract systems, refinery configurations, and logistics networks.
In the short term, Japan can only achieve limited risk diversification through marginal supply alternatives. The shipping route from the Middle East to Japan is relatively short, well-established, and cost-effective due to its scale. Switching to sources in Africa, Latin America, or Central Asia would significantly increase transportation costs. Additionally, differences in crude oil quality and compatibility with existing refining systems present further obstacles, as switching sources could necessitate adjustments across the entire industrial chain. Therefore, the Middle East is expected to remain Japan's primary energy supplier for the foreseeable future.
Potential countermeasures for Japan include continuing to diversify energy sources, restarting nuclear power generation, and modernizing the energy structure through renewable energy development and grid upgrades. Domestic concerns over energy security are rising, with proposals emphasizing expanded use of renewables, energy efficiency, and electrification to fundamentally reduce reliance on imported energy.
In mid-April, Tokyo Electric Power Company resumed commercial operation of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant's No. 6 reactor after a 14-year hiatus. Japan aims for nuclear power to constitute about 20% of its energy mix by 2040, which would require more than 30 operational reactors—double the number currently restarted. However, public skepticism about nuclear safety persists since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, and the unresolved issue of nuclear waste disposal remains a significant challenge.
Transitioning Japan's energy system involves comprehensive structural reforms across supply, demand, and regulatory frameworks, requiring adjustments to energy sources, consumption patterns, the power grid, and related industries. As a resource-scarce country lacking traditional energy reserves like oil and gas, Japan also faces limitations in renewable energy development—such as limited land area, a high proportion of mountainous terrain, and insufficient plains and maritime zones suitable for large-scale solar and wind projects. These factors make the country's energy structural transformation exceptionally difficult.
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