J.P. Morgan Forecasts 5-6% Macau GGR Growth in 2026, Profit Growth Expected to Outpace Revenue

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J.P. Morgan has released a research report indicating that Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) in December 2025 increased by 15% year-on-year to MOP 20.9 billion, recovering to 91% of pre-pandemic levels. The figure was slightly below the market's expectation of 18%, primarily because market expectations had been gradually revised upwards, with the initial forecast being 15%.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, quarterly GGR grew 15% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter to MOP 66.1 billion, hitting a six-year high and significantly surpassing the bank's and the market's expectation of 9% year-on-year growth.

For the full year 2025, GGR increased by 9% year-on-year to MOP 247.4 billion, exceeding the bank's forecast of 5%.

Looking ahead to 2026, the bank maintains its expectation that Macau's GGR will grow by 5% to 6%, driven by an anticipated 7% to 8% growth in mass market and slot machine revenue, while VIP revenue is expected to decline by 5%.

More importantly, the bank expects industry profits to grow by 6% to 7% year-on-year, finally poised to outpace the rate of revenue growth.

Regarding stocks, the bank continues to favor Sands China Ltd. (01928) in the short term, while GALAXY ENT (00027) is its long-term top pick, with target prices set at HK$24.5 and HK$50 respectively, and both are rated "Overweight".

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